fbpx

Analysis

BICOM Briefing: Election results and implications

[ssba]

Last update: 16.00 GMT, 24/1/2013

Key points

  • The Israeli elections have brought a significant shift to the centre-left. Centre-left and right-wing blocs are almost tied with 61 out of 120 seats for the right, compared to 65 in the outgoing Knesset.
  • Yair Lapid’s newly-formed, centrist, Yesh Atid party has scored a dramatic result with 19 seats, far more than anyone predicted.
  • The joint Likud-Beitenu list of Benjamin Netanyahu and Avigdor Lieberman has slipped to 31 seats, compared to the 42 seats they jointly held previously.
  • Netanyahu still looks certain to remain Prime Minister through a coalition with Yesh Atid, but Lapid will have considerable leverage over the direction of the government.

The Results (with 99% of votes counted)

  • Likud-Beitenu:                    31
  • Yesh Atid:                            19
  • Labour:                                15
  • Jewish Home:                    12
  • Shas:                                    11
  • United Torah Judaism:       7
  • Hatnua:                                 6
  • Meretz:                                 6
  • Hadash:                                 4
  • Ra’am Taal:                          4
  • Balad:                                    3
  • Kadima:                                 2
  • Right block (including ultra-Orthodox):           61
  • Left- block (including Arab parties):                 59

What do the results mean?

  • The results are a major shock, with no poll over the election campaign predicting the actual outcome. They represent a far higher vote than expected for the newly-formed centrist, secular, Yesh Atid, under the leadership of former anchor man Yair Lapid. The results are at the lower end of the predicted range for right-wing parties Likud-Beitenu and Jewish Home. The joint Likud-Beitenu list is predicted to have 31 seats, compared to 42 in the previous Knesset.
  • Turnout was up on four years ago, reaching around 67% compared to 65% in 2009.
  • Though the counting of final votes could yet shift a seat here or there, as of Thursday afternoon it looks like the right-wing bloc, which includes the ultra-Orthodox parties, has slipped to 61 seats in the 120 seat Knesset, from 65 in the previous Knesset, making this a significant shift to the centre-left.
  • President Peres will still invite Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to form the next government, since he leads the largest party, and looks to be the only leader capable of forming a government. Yair Lapid is set to be his senior coalition partner.
  • Netanyahu would have preferred to have a centrist party in the coalition in any case. However, Yair Lapid will have considerable leverage over the agenda of the government.
  • Netanyahu’s personal mandate will be weakened as a result of the polls. Of the approximately 31 elected members of the joint Likud-Yisrael Beitenu list, only 21 are from Netanyahu’s Likud party.
  • A wide range of scenarios are conceivable, but assuming that Likud-Beitenu and Yesh Atid form the core of the next coalition, they will have a range of smaller parties to consider bringing in to take them over the 60 seat threshold. These include on the right, Naftali Bennet’s Jewish Home (12) as well as the ultra-Orthodox Shas (11) and UTJ (7), and on the left, Tzipi Livni’s Hatnua (6) and Shaul Mofaz’s shrunken Kadima (2).
  • Labour leader Shelly Yachimovich has said she will not join a Netanyahu led coalition, and will try to engineer an alternative centre-left coalition by reaching out to the ultra-Orthodox parties. Such a manoeuvre, however, is highly unlikely to succeed.
  • Some 47 members of the new Knesset have never served in parliament before, and six more are returning after a period of absence. The new Knesset will include a record 26 women. The host of new faces include many new figures on the centre-left from Yair Lapid’s list, and leaders of the 2011 social protest movement who are part of the Labour list. There are also new faces on the right in Naftali Bennett’s Jewish Home list and in the Likud-Beitenu list.

How have the leaders reacted?

  • Netanyahu has claimed this as mandate for a third government under his leadership, and set out five principles on which he will attempt to form a coalition: preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons; economic responsibility; political responsibility in attempts to achieve peace; sharing the burden; and reducing the cost of living.
  • Lapid has called for a broad based government including parties from left and right, and made clear he is ready to work with Netanyahu, prioritising his domestic agenda, but also insisting on movement in the peace process.
  • Yachimovich has attacked Netanyahu and said she will do all she can to promote an alternative to a Netanyahu government.
  • Shas leaders have kept their options open and said they would consider going to a coalition including Yesh Atid.
  • Jewish Home leader Naftali Bennett welcomed the results with a speech stressing unity and focussing on a domestic agenda.

Who is Yair Lapid?

  • Yair Lapid is a telegenic former TV news anchor and writer, and son of late secular political leader Tommy Lapid.
  • He has positioned himself as a centrist outsider representing Israel’s forgotten middle-class.
  • He campaigned primarily for a fair share of the ‘national burden’, including drafting ultra-Orthodox Jews into the army, and for political reform, but he has also spoken about the importance of the peace process.

What will happen next?

  • Once official results are announced, President Peres will begin meeting with the leaders of all parties who entered the Knesset, to hear their recommendations of whom he should ask to form a government. The President is then required to ask the party leader he considers most likely to be able to form a stable coalition to try and form a government.
  • The law gives four weeks for that individual to form a government, and the President may grant a two week extension. During that period all the parties will engage in intensive horse-trading over who will enter the coalition, the policies the government will adopt, and the allocation of ministerial portfolios. All parties will consider a wide range of options in order to maximise their leverage in the negotiations.

Further resources