fbpx

Analysis

BICOM Briefing: The situation in Syria

[ssba]

On 22 August, BICOM’s Senior Visiting Fellow Brig. Gen. (ret.) Michael Herzog gave a briefing to journalists on the current situation in Syria. A summary of the key points from this briefing can be found below.

  • I think there will be no clarity as long as there is no concrete or objective evidence from the ground without people taking samples, visiting the sites and so on. It would make sense to send the UN delegation there but given the Russian and Chinese positions they were not instructed to do so.
  • Assuming the videos weren’t fabricated and I don’t think they were, there’s also intelligence evidence in Israel and the US to support the point that chemical weapons or agents were used against civilians. This was reflected in the statement of the Israeli Minister of Defence Moshe Ya’alon yesterday who, without referring directly to this incident, said that the Syrian regime has already used chemical weapons.
  • There is no doubt that only the regime has the possession and skill to use the weapons and there is no evidence that the rebel groups have the ability to use such weapons/capabilities. The area is controlled by rebels so it was fired by regime forces. There is precedent with the regime using chemicals in the past.
  • It’s more likely some type of nerve gas was used. There’s also a possibility that the regime used lighter agents but in high concentrations in a closed space which could kill people but it has to be investigated.

Why carry out such an attack at this time?

  • Why would the regime do this while a UN delegation is visiting? The less likely explanation is that it was done with a local commander without orders from above. It’s possible because we know in the past they have carried out such actions without orders but I think the accumulating experience in Syria shows things are sanctioned from above.
  • The most likely explanation I would give is that they did it because they could, and they knew they won’t pay any price. This highlights a symmetry where the regime is actively supported by Iran and Russia while the west is passive, hesitant. Assad tested weapons in the past, saw that he pays no price, it’s the anniversary that Obama declaration of his red line, he exposed the inability of the west to play a role.
  • There’s also another inclination that I heard from another expert. Following the situation even though the regime notched up several successes in the past months in places like Homs, it’s still under pressure and does not control over 50% of its territory which could lead to some rash decisions by the regime, combined with the lack of paying a price.
  • Here in Israel, people say that there is strong indication that chemical weapons were used by the regime. Israel itself maintains a low profile and no interest in getting drawn in. It will only act when its own national security interests are directly or immediately threatened either on the border or through the transfer of weapons.