BICOM

BICOM Senior Visiting Fellow Brig. Gen. (Ret.) Michael Herzog has contributed to a new publication on regional responses to Iran’s nuclear programme by UK defence think tank, the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), addressing the Israeli perspective. 

From the perspective of those in Israel’s defence establishment and its decision-makers, Iran’s nuclearisation tops the list of threats to their country’s national security. Some, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, even define the threat as ‘existential’. One should not underestimate this mindset in a nation whose collective consciousness has been shaped by historical persecution and a series of wars forced upon it by hostile neighbours.

Israelis do not regard the challenge as being exclusive to them, and believe that it falls to the ‘free world’, under US leadership, to resolve it. At the same time, however, they see the threat to Israel as being far greater than that posed to any other regional or international actor. This is due to the potential marriage between WMD (Israelis have no doubt that Iran seeks a nuclear weapon) and the Iranian regime’s deeply felt ideological and theological hostility towards Israel. This hostility, coupled with its regional hegemonic ambitions, has already led Iran to target Israel through proxies – regionally and globally. There is a strong feeling that if the international community were to fail to put a stop to Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the burden would fall on Israel. The perception of waning US regional influence since the Arab Awakening has reinforced this concern.

The question is whether a nuclear-armed Iran would actually use its capabilities against Israel. Most Israelis agree that this is not an issue that should be put to the test. In either case, Israel believes that a nuclear-armed Iran would dramatically alter Israel’s strategic landscape by triggering a regional nuclear arms race, enhancing Iran’s position as a mainstay of radicalism, and allowing Tehran, under the shield of nuclear deterrence, to escalate its destabilising power projection. Further into the future, proliferation among non-state actors is also considered a threat. For Israelis, the policy debate over Iran is therefore an acute, real-life issue, not a theoretical one. The consequences of any action to prevent Iranian nuclearisation are weighed carefully against the cost of inaction. For Israel, all options really are on the table.

Download the publication, including Michael Herzog’s article in full, from RUSI.