BICOM

Following the swearing in of the Palestinian unity government on Monday 2 June, Avi Issacharoff, one of Israel’s leading Arab affairs commentators, briefed journalists on a BICOM conference call. Issacharoff is Middle East analyst for Times of Israel and Israeli news site Walla, having previously written for many years for Haaretz. The following is a summary of his briefing. You can listen to the interview in full at www.bicom.org.uk/podcasts.

What has made the formation of this unity government possible?

The one thing that changed is Hamas’s situation. Hamas is in a very weak state both economically and politically. It has been hit by the very aggressive action that the Egyptian army has taken in Sinai, particularly with the blocking of the tunnels which were a major source of income for the Hamas government in Gaza.

How will the new government address the on-going differences between the Palestinian factions?

The big question is how the new government will look and act, will it have authority in Gaza? We need to wait and see. From what I understand its ability to act in Gaza will be limited, if it has any.

The security forces belonging to Hamas will continue to follow orders from the leaders of Hamas in the Gaza Strip. They won’t follow orders from Abbas or Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Rami Hamdallah’s offices. A question also remains surrounding the salaries; who is going to pay the salaries of those working for Hamas’s government? The Palestinian Authority does not have the money to pay for 40,000 Hamas officials in the Gaza Strip addition to the salaries of the 160 000 officials which it already pays in the West Bank.

Abbas finds himself in a dilemma here. On one hand he has to calm the situation vis-à-vis Hamas with a reconciliation period. On the other hand he has to deal with the Israeli government which has already announced that it is not going to work with the new government – accusing Abbas of forming a kind of a coalition with a terror organisation. But I think that Abbas has just accepted an offer he cannot refuse: a government with no Hamas, a government that follows the Quartet demands, and that also places Israel in a dilemma.

What is your sense of how Israel’s government will respond if the US and the EU recognise the unity government?

As far as I understand, if the new Palestinian government follows the demands of the Quartet then the EU will cooperate with it. That again pushes Israel into a corner. The bigger question surrounds the US. Last night Secretary Kerry called Abbas. Abbas mentioned again that the government will follow his policy of recognising Israel, recognising agreements and continuing to denounce violence. The US needs to wait and see, like Israel, depending on what the government does and how it acts, before deciding how to deal with it.

What are the various options facing the Israeli cabinet?

There are many options being discussed right now including sanctions that can hurt the Palestinian Authority. Different variations of these sanctions are being discussed. The biggest option is blocking the transfer of tax revenues to the Palestinian Authority which would cause serious problems for Abbas as they will not have money to pay salaries of either their own or Hamas officials. But Israel needs to think hard about this because it also presents a dilemma for Israel. If PA security forces aren’t paid, that will not be in the interests of the State of Israel. We might also see prevention of Palestinian ministers travelling from Gaza to the West Bank. We may see an Israeli boycott of ministers of the PA – a policy of no contact or discussions with them. But it would be better for Israel to wait before it really damages PA interests and therefore its own.

Following the unity deal, how will security co-operation between Israel and the PA be affected?

This is exactly one of the points where we do not know how it’s going to work. Just as Hamas won’t be accountable to Abbas in the Gaza Strip, so the PA may still operate against Hamas and Islamic Jihad operatives in the West Bank despite the unity deal. I don’t see the PA security forces stopping activities against Hamas and Islamic Jihad cells because they are a real threat to not just Israel but also the PA.

Let us not be misguided about this reconciliation. Security cooperation [between Israel and the PA in the West Bank] will continue at least in the short term unless there is some kind of explosion between the two sides. I witnessed two weeks ago how this cooperation works. I was saved by Palestinian security forces from a mob in the West Bank who tried to attack me and they passed me to Israeli authorities. The co-operation is still continuing on the ground.

Will this new Palestinian government be able to hold credible elections?

I think there’s a big gap between formation of a new government and holding elections. I don’t see this new government holding elections in six months, not because of the government and ministers themselves, but because of the issues which also involve Israel and the US. Both Fatah and Hamas will say they are ready for elections in a matter of months, but both sides will demand that elections also take place in East Jerusalem. That will put the ball in Israel’s court to say yes or no. Israel will probably say no to East Jerusalem elections if they include the participation of Hamas as a party. It almost happened in 2006, but this time it’s really obvious that Netanyahu is not going to allow Hamas to take part in East Jerusalem elections.

Are there forces in the Israeli cabinet arguing that Israel should negotiate with the new government? Where is Israeli public opinion on this issue?

The Israeli public is fairly indifferent and does not see any difference between one Palestinian government and another.

For the Israeli government however, this is a serious issue. Justice Minister Tzipi Livni and Finance Minister Yair Lapid are very careful with what they say regarding the new government, while on the other hand the right wing ministers such as Housing Minister Uri Ariel and Economy Minister Naftali Bennett are calling for a total boycott. This leaves us with the decision of Netanyahu. What will he do and how will he react?