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Analysis

Analysis: Contextualizing Israeli Concerns about the Iran Nuclear Deal, by Brig. Gen. (res.) Michael Herzog

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Without doubt, the Parameters for a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) regarding Iran’s nuclear program, reached between Iran and the P5+1 this April in Lausanne, is a significant milestone. Nonetheless, many questions about this framework remain unanswered: by its very nature, an understanding such as this one is not a formal, signed agreement, and the United States and Iran have already interpreted key terms in divergent ways.

Given the strategic significance and time frame of the negotiated accord, its consequences can be fully judged only in years to come. For now, however, a proverbial ocean separates the views of the U.S. and Israeli leaders on the prospective accord. For U.S. president Barack Obama, the emerging deal is a “historic opportunity” that could be his crowning foreign policy achievement. For Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu, the deal is a “historic mistake.” As relations between the two governments almost certainly approach rougher waters, it is important to contextualize their differences. In effect, one must seek to understand how these two close allies can view the same agreement so differently.

Extensive discussions with Israeli and U.S. officials reveal the core elements of the U.S.-Israel disagreement to be differing threat perceptions, divergent worldviews and regional assessments, as well as a deep deficit of trust. Indeed, the roots of Israeli unease can be found as much in the context surrounding the deal as in its specific terms.

Read the analysis in full at the Washington Institute.