Analysis
BICOM Expert View: Red lines and pitfalls for the Iran deal and beyond – A conversation with Michael Herzog
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Click here to download the paper in full.
In this BICOM expert view paper, Brig. Gen. (res.) Michael Herzog assesses the underlying concerns with the Iran nuclear negotiations, the implications for the region and how the P5+1 can strengthen the deal.
KEY POINTS
- From the perspective of Israel and many of its Arab neighbours, this deal does not effectively block all Iran’s pathways to the bomb over time. It may reduce risk for around a decade, but then the risk is significantly increased, as the deal allows Iran to reduce its breakout time to near zero and legitimises it as a nuclear threshold state. This holds profound implications for Israel’s long-term national security.
- The choice posited by the Americans between a war and a deal is false. Though the basic framework cannot be changed, there are specific elements that could still be improved with strong US deterrence including a credible military option, and international unity.
- Whilst the US argues that this deal may empower moderates, most Israeli analysts believe it is more likely to empower hardliners and Iranian destabilising policies in the region.
- The P5+1 should insist on certain critical elements: anytime, anywhere inspection and verification; irreversible conversion of excess enriched material in Iran; significant restrictions on R&D of advanced centrifuges; a clear and binding pathway to resolving IAEA files on possible military dimensions (PMD); and phased sanctions relief linked, among other elements, to satisfactory resolution of PMD issues.
- It is vital to reinforce deterrence against Iran in the first 10-15 years, so Iran can be deterred from breaking out and crossing the threshold when enrichment restrictions are lifted.
- Israel, major European actors and the US should also hold a close dialogue on how to deter Iran from pursuing its hegemonic regional agenda from a strengthened economic and political position after a deal is signed and sanctions are lifted. They should also consider how to prevent a regional race for nuclear capability.
- Contrary to the views of some in the West, there is little room for strategic partnership with Iran, given their contrasting vision of the Middle East with respect to sectarianism, inclusion, human rights, democracy, and the use of violence.