BICOM

Key Points

• With 13 rockets fired at Israel from Gaza since June, and the humanitarian and political problems in the Gaza Strip unresolved, there are concerns regarding possible escalation.
• Israel recognises the need to improve the situation in Gaza, and has allowed two million tonnes of reconstruction materials to enter. However, Israel continues to work through the Palestinian Authority, which has deep disagreements and friction with the Hamas authority in the Gaza Strip.
• Meanwhile Egypt has destroyed the tunnels under its border with Gaza and is unwilling to open its border, since it links Hamas to the Jihadist insurgency in the Sinai.

Who is firing and where could it lead?

• Three rockets were fired at Ashkelon and Sderot over the weekend of 18-20 September, with an Islamic State affiliated jihadi network in the Gaza Strip called the Company of Sheikh Omar Hadid (or Omar Hadid Brigades) claiming responsibility.
• This group, which has claimed several rockets attacks since May 2015, explicitly challenges Hamas authority and uses Islamic State imagery and music in its communications. Their fire, whilst still on a small scale, appears to be getting more regular and more accurate in targeting Israeli population areas.
• Israeli intelligence assessments are that Hamas remains interested in maintaining the current lull but have proven unable to stamp out these attacks, or else have chosen to turn a blind eye.
• Hamas’s authority in the Gaza Strip is under increasing challenge. There is popular resentment at the humanitarian situation, whilst more extreme Jihadists criticise it for maintaining a ceasefire.
• Israeli policy is to hold Hamas responsible for any fire, and to retaliate against Hamas targets. So far Israeli retaliatory airstrikes have been careful to avoid casualties which could trigger an escalation, but should the rocket fire intensify, Israel will face the dilemma of whether to increase its response. In the past, smaller groups firing rockets have dragged Israel and Hamas into direct confrontation.

What is underlying the political stagnation in Gaza?

• Gaza’s situation is shaped not only by conflict between Israel and Hamas, but by Hamas’s poor relations with Egypt and the Palestinian Authority.
• Israeli authorities recognise the need to improve the situation in the Gaza Strip in order to prevent renewed conflict. This is demonstrated by its commitment to the Gaza Reconstruction Mechanism, the increasing truckloads of building materials and other goods entering Gaza, and Israel’s cooperation with Qatari authorities funding infrastructure projects.
• However, Israel continues to restrict entry of dual use materials which could be used by Hamas or other groups to rearm. Israeli military sources report that Hamas has seized concrete materials meant for reconstruction to use them for rebuilding its attack tunnels.
• Meanwhile Israel continues to work through the PA, which has not taken responsibility for Gaza’s border crossings due to its own deep disagreements with Hamas. Disputes between the PA and Hamas are a major contributor to Hamas’s problems, including disagreements over tax collection, salary payments to Hamas employees, and purchases of fuel for Gaza.
• Israel has an interest in a long term ceasefire with Hamas, and there have been reports of mediated discussions between about further reducing restrictions on access in return for an extended period of calm. However, Israel is reluctant to enter into a formal agreement which could legitimize Hamas internationally and weaken the Palestinian Authority.
• Egypt is unwilling to open its border, since it links Hamas to the Jihadist insurgency in the Sinai.

What factors are driving up tensions in Gaza now?

• There is an acute crisis in the already inadequate electricity supply, due to unrepaired lines from Egypt, and reduced fuel supplies from Israel during the holiday period.
• Egypt’s clampdown on smuggling tunnels under the Gaza-Egypt border escalated to flooding the border area over the weekend, destroying Hamas’s tunnelling infrastructure. The Egypt-Gaza border at the Rafah crossing has been nearly continuously closed since October 2014.
• There is frustration at the slow pace of reconstruction, despite a recent acceleration and Israel so far authorizing two million tonnes of cement to enter.
• The case of Mohammad Allan, a Palestinian Islamic Jihad operative who has conducted a series of hunger strikes to protest his administrative detention, has gained popular attention.
• Tensions in Jerusalem surrounding the Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif are also a potential trigger.