BICOM

BICOM has produced a report on the major trends in the Middle East for 2016 and their implications for Britain and Israel.

The Middle East of 2016 is beset by fractured, dysfunctional states experiencing an erosion of control over their sovereign borders and a steep increase in ethnic and religious tension. Analysis from the report indicates that sub-state actors such as Hezbollah and Islamic State will continue to be the beneficiaries of this disorder, with a resurgent Russia and regionally ambitious Iran also moving to fill the vacuum caused by the Obama Administration’s strategic retrenchment.  The Palestinian peace process looks unlikely to return to the table in 2016 amid uncertainty over the succession of President Mahmoud Abbas and the possibility of a collapse of the Palestinian Authority.

Meanwhile, an increasing number of refugees from Syria add to the instability in neighbouring countries while large numbers head to Europe.  With no resolution to the war in Syria in sight and an intensification of Sunni-Shia hostilities, chaos and instability look set to remain a fact of life in 2016.

Executive Summary

• This paper seeks to identify the major trends in the Middle East in order to map out their potential significance for Israel, the region, and the UK in 2016.

• The Middle East of 2016 is beset by fractured, dysfunctional states experiencing an erosion of control over their sovereign borders and a steep increase in ethnic and religious tension. While US policy reflects the Obama Administration’s preference to reduce regional commitments, a resurgent Russia, regionally ambitious Iran and sub-state actors such as Hezbollah and Islamic State have partially filled the vacuum. An increasing number of refugees from Syria add to the instability in neighbouring countries while large numbers head to Europe. Absent internal or external powers willing or capable of establishing order, chaos and instability look set to remain a fact of life in 2016.

• Israel is confronted with a complex strategic environment which involves deterring radical sub-state actors on its borders, countering Iran and its proxies, maintaining its special relationship with the US and ensuring good working relations with Russia. It is also facing low level violence in the Palestinian arena that has become increasingly difficult to manage and may well escalate during the coming year. Converging interests exist between Israel and the Gulf states while Israel’s energy reserves, coupled with Turkish concern at its own regional situation, may facilitate renewed normalised relations between the two countries in 2016.

• Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is almost 81, has publicly stated his intention not to compete again in elections, and has appointed no successor (or deputy). Whether his rule ends in 2016 or not, ‘the day after Abbas’ will be a leap into the unknown for the Palestinians and for Israeli-Palestinian relations. Another game changer would be the collapse (or dissolution) of the Palestinian Authority (PA), caused either by a Palestinian decision to ‘return the keys’ and the civic burden of governing the West Bank over to Israel, or simply by accumulated frustration, pressure or violence reaching a tipping point.

• The Obama Administration is unlikely to significantly reverse its policy of strategic retrenchment during its final 12 months, but the wisdom and consequences of Obama’s approach will be a subject of foreign policy debates in the Presidential campaign. The next American President will have to cope with a region where traditional Western allies – such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt and others – have diminished faith in the readiness of the US to act to preserve their security.

• ISIS will continue to pose a challenge to efforts to stabilise Libya, where fragmentation has contributed to wider regional instability, including through the outflow of weapons. The presence of ISIS affiliated fighters controlling part of the country, and posing a threat to Europe, could prompt growing calls for a European military intervention there with UK involvement. Meanwhile the attack which killed 30 British citizens in Tunisia in June 2015 shockingly illustrated the vulnerability of British citizens and interests elsewhere in the region.

• The fight against ISIS poses a significant challenge to UK national security both at home and abroad as well as in the need to consolidate a coordinated international response to the refugee problem. The West should also be wary of a resurgent Iran with hegemonic ambitions.

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