BICOM

Key points

• The P5+1 have signed an interim deal giving Iran partial sanctions relief in return for partial suspension of elements of its nuclear programme.
• The deal runs against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s warning that giving sanctions relief without forcing Iran to scale back its nuclear programme is a “historic mistake.” Saudi Arabia has also expressed deep concerns.
• The next six months are likely to see a tense period whilst the P5+1 attempt to agree the terms of a comprehensive settlement with Iran, whilst ensuring the terms of the interim agreement are also met.

What has been agreed?

• On Sunday 24 November, the P5+1 concluded with Iran the first part of a staged agreement to address long-held international concerns that Iran’s nuclear programme is intended for military purposes. The parties intend to reach a complete agreement within six months.
• The agreement affirms that Iran has the right to a peaceful nuclear programme as set out in the Non-Proliferation Treaty. It envisages Iran having a future enrichment programme within “agreed limits” but does not specify explicitly that Iran has the right to enrich uranium, as demanded by Iran.
• As an interim measure Iran has committed for the next six months to:
  • freeze enrichment of uranium over 5 per cent;
  • convert existing stockpiles of 20 per cent enriched uranium to oxide form or lower enriched uranium;
  • stop the installation of new enrichment centrifuges and suspend activation of recently installed advanced centrifuges;
  • not to increase its stockpile of 3.5 per cent enriched uranium (enrichment will continue but new stocks will be converted to less dangerous oxide form);
  • stop installation of new components at its heavy water production plant and plutonium reactor at Arak;
  • accept daily inspection of enrichment facilities.
• The P5+1 has agreed to:
  • release some Iranian oil income frozen in foreign accounts, reportedly valuing $4.2 billion dollars;
  • temporarily provide relief on some sanctions, including trade in gold, precious metals, petrochemicals, auto parts and aircraft parts;
  • allow a mechanism through certain banks for Iran to more easily buy humanitarian goods and medicines.

What is the Israeli position on the deal?

• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has argued that it is a “historic mistake” to offer sanctions relief to Iran without Iran agreeing to dismantle those parts of its nuclear programme which are of concern.
• Israel has further argued that the stopping of enrichment to 20 per cent, and removing 20 per cent enriched uranium, will make little difference now Iran has advanced centrifuges which speed up break out times using 3.5 per cent enriched uranium.
• There is deep concern in Israel that the relaxation of sanctions, however limited, will relieve the pressure on Iran, which has brought them to seek an agreement, by giving direct financial relief, and indirectly by restoring some confidence in the Iranian economy.
• Netanyahu has described Iran as being “on the ropes” due to sanctions, and believed that by increasing the pressure the P5+1 could have got a better deal.
• Other regional states, in particular Saudi Arabia, are equally concerned about the deal, with a Saudi official quoted in the New York Times calling it “a fool’s game.”
• Israel has repeatedly made clear that it is prepared to act militarily to stop Iran having the potential to build nuclear weapons, if diplomacy fails to resolve the issue.

What is likely to happen next?

• The next six months are likely to see a tense period whilst the P5+1 attempt to agree the terms of a comprehensive settlement with Iran, whilst ensuring the terms of the interim agreement are also being adhered to.
• Israeli leaders will campaign vigorously for the P5+1 to seek a final agreement which fully dismantles those parts of the Iranian nuclear programme which could give it the capacity to acquire nuclear weapons, in particular its uranium enrichment capacity and its Arak plutonium facility.
• Israel can also be expected to continue to press for a credible military option to remain on the table, alongside renewed and toughened sanctions if Iran is not willing to make the concessions necessary to put nuclear weapons out of reach.

Further resources

• For a background briefing on the concerns surrounding Iran’s nuclear programme click here.
• For further extensive briefing, analysis, updates and background on the Iranian nuclear issue visit https://www.bicom.org.uk/spotlight/iran-nuclear-programme/.
• Follow BICOM on twitter @britainisrael