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Analysis

BICOM Briefing: Escalation of rocket fire from Gaza and Israeli response

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Last update: 20:00 BST, 7/7/2014

Key points

  • Israel’s Security Cabinet decided on Monday afternoon it would pursue a staged escalation of military activities against Hamas and other armed groups to stop the firing of rockets from the Gaza Strip.
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu has expressed his desire to restore calm, but faces complex security and political challenges in doing so.
  • More than 80 rockets were fired from the Gaza Strip at Israeli towns on Monday, taking the total in the past month to around 220, and creating considerable pressure in Israel for a major military operation against armed groups there.
  • At the same time, there have been violent demonstrations in Israeli-Arab towns following the murder of Palestinian teenager Mohammed Abu Khedir by Israeli extremists in Jerusalem last week, ­and the cabinet may be considering, among other factors, a concern not to fan the flames.
  • Israeli society has united in condemnation of the murder of the Palestinian teenager Mohammed Abu Khedir by Israeli extremists. At the same time they expect the government to deal forcefully with Hamas and other armed groups attempting to terrorise the Israeli population, in particular those living under daily rocket fire. Netanyahu also faces political pressure from coalition partners, in particular Avigdor Lieberman and Naftali Bennett, who are calling for a more substantial military operation in the Gaza Strip.

What is the Israeli government’s approach to the rockets from Gaza?

Israel is facing a particularly complex security challenge, facing sustained rocket fire from the Gaza Strip, as well as unrest in Arab-Israeli communities, and the challenge of the ongoing operation to find the individuals that abducted and murdered three Israeli teens in the West Bank.

Prime Minister Netanyahu has made clear that his approach overall is to try and restore calm as quickly as possible. In this he reportedly has the backing of IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz. So far Israel has carried out only limited airstrikes in response to the rocket fire. If Israel launches a major military operation against armed groups firing rockets from the Gaza Strip it can expect to face increased rocket fire until a new ceasefire is reached, likely targeting Tel Aviv and other cities further from the Strip. The escalation could also exacerbate tensions among the Arab population of Israel, East Jerusalem and the West Bank. Israel also has to take into account Egyptian interests to avoid an escalation, and to consider whether it is in Israel’s interests to weaken Hamas to the point where it can no longer govern smaller and even more radical groups.

However Netanyahu’s restraint has led to a public dispute with Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, who has led calls, along with Jewish Home leader Naftali Bennett, for a major operation against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Lieberman has announced he is dissolving the merger deal between his Yisrael Beitenu party and Netanyahu’s Likud party as a result of the disagreement, though he will remain in the coalition and the stability of the government is not in immediate danger. Party leaders to the left of the coalition, Yair Lapid and Tzipi Livni, have backed calls for a more measured approach.

What is the position of Hamas in the Gaza Strip?

Around 220 rockets have been fired from the Gaza Strip in the last month, compared to 35 in all of 2013, and 85 in the first five months of 2014. Most have been fired in the past week, with more than 80 fired on Monday alone. The ceasefire established by Operation Pillar of Defence in 2012 began to gradually erode in the first few months of 2014. Rocket fire began to increase considerably after Israel launched Operation Brother’s Keeper to find three Israeli teenagers abducted by Hamas operatives in the West Bank. Egyptian brokered attempts to renew the ceasefire have yet to bear fruit.

Until Monday, responsibility for most of the fire was being claimed by smaller factions, including Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the Popular Resistance Committees. In periods of quiet Hamas has enforced the ceasefire. The recent erosion of the ceasefire reflects to some extent a Hamas policy to allow an escalation, and to some extent a waning of their authority. However, Hamas has taken direct responsibility for some of the firing in recent days, for the first time since 2012. Hamas threatened on Monday morning a significant response following the death of several of its operatives on Sunday night, even though it appears the Hamas fatalities were caused after they entered a tunnel targeted by Israel two days ago, which then collapsed.

Hamas vocally celebrates attacks against Israeli civilians, but most analysts have assessed until now that it does not have an interest in a full blown conflict with Israel. It faces severe political and economic difficulties due to lack of funds, and increased pressure from Egypt which has shut down smuggling tunnels under the Gaza-Egypt border. The Palestinian Authority has refused to transfer funds to pay its 40,000 employees since the forming of the Palestinian unity government at the beginning of June. Hamas is apparently trying to use the crisis as an opportunity to extract better ceasefire terms, whereas Israel wants to return to the same terms that existed before.

What is the significance of the rioting among Israeli-Arabs?

The rioting in Israeli Arab communities has been triggered by violent demonstration in East Jerusalem, which followed the murder of an East Jerusalem Palestinian teenager by Israeli extremists. This in turn was an apparent revenge attack following the murder of three Israeli teenagers by Hamas operatives in the West Bank.

Israeli politicians, including internal security minister Yitzhak Aharonovitch, have reached out to mayors of Arab towns who have in turn called for calm. Fortunately, so far there has been no repeat of the fatalities which occurred among Arab-Israelis during the major disturbances at the beginning of the Second Intifada in October 2000, reflecting improvements in policing since that time.

Whilst the disturbances among Arab-Israelis are not directly linked to the escalation with armed groups in the Gaza Strip, the desire not to fuel anger among the Arab population of Israel and the West Bank may be a factor for the Israeli cabinet in deciding whether to launch a major military operation to stop the rocket fire from the Gaza Strip.

Where does the Israeli public stand?

Politicians and other public figures across the spectrum have united to condemn the revenge killing of Palestinian teenager Mohammed Abu Khedir in response to the killing of the three Israeli teens in the West Bank. At the same time, the Israeli public expect the government to act against Palestinian terrorists, both by bringing to justice the killers of the three Israeli teens, clamping down on the Hamas infrastructure in the West Bank, and above all stopping rocket fire from the Gaza Strip. Mayors of towns under daily rocket fire in the south of Israel are demanding something be done. It remains to be seen how far Israel will have to expand its military operations before a new ceasefire can be put in place.