BICOM

Key points

• Egyptian mediated talks involving Israel and Palestinian factions are expected to begin in Cairo within the next two weeks to address long term solutions for the Gaza Strip.
• A UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) inquiry – described by the British government as “fundamentally unbalanced” – is expected to begin its work and issue a report in March 2015.
• Various Israeli bodies, including the IDF, are conducting their own inquiries, expected to continue over coming months.
• Meanwhile, the Palestinian Authority (PA) may seek UN support at the forthcoming General Assembly meeting at the end of September for a proposal for the establishment of a Palestinian state within three years.

Whilst the rockets have stopped flying, the fallout from the recent conflict will be with us for some time to come. This briefing reviews what we can expect to see in the coming weeks and months.

Cairo talks expected to begin this month

The ceasefire agreement which went into force on 26 August determined that Egyptian mediated negotiations would begin in Cairo within one month to address long term issues. These include borders, Israeli demands for demilitarisation, Hamas demands for a sea port and airport, payment of Hamas salaries, the release of Palestinian prisoners and return of the bodies of Israeli soldiers. According to reports, Egyptian officials have already held meetings in Jerusalem and Ramallah. Sometime in the coming two weeks an Israeli delegation and a Palestinian delegation representing different factions are expected to travel to Cairo.

Israeli officials say Israel is ready to see a swift relaxation of border crossing restrictions into Israel for the entry of construction materials, but they want to see mechanisms in place to track the use of dual use materials like cement and the reintroduction of PA forces onto the borders. Egypt is also making relaxation of restrictions on the Rafah border dependent on the reintroduction of the PA. However, tensions between the PA and Hamas are high, with PA President Mahmoud Abbas accusing Hamas of killing 120 Fatah activists during the operation and threatening to dissolve the Palestinian unity government unless Hamas recognise “one authority, one gun, one law” in the form of PA control in Gaza.

International engagement in Gaza

Meanwhile, Egypt has announced that it will co-host with Norway, chair of the international Ad Hoc Liaison Committee on development aid to the Palestinians, a donor’s conference to fund reconstruction in the Gaza Strip, on 12 October.

The European Union, led by Britain, Germany and France, said during the conflict that they were willing to contribute actively to monitoring and verification mechanisms that would allow for secure relaxations of restrictions on Gaza’s borders; they also worked on proposals for a UN Security Council Resolution. However, there were differences within the Security Council about the text and with the end of the fighting this seems to have dropped down the Council’s agenda.

UN Human Rights Council inquiry due March 2015

The UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) voted in July to commission an inquiry into “violations of international humanitarian law and international human rights law in the Occupied Palestinian Territory,” in a resolution described by the British government as “fundamentally unbalanced”.

The report is due to be presented to the March 2015 session of the Human Rights Council. The three member inquiry is chaired by William Schabas, a Canadian professor at Middlesex University, and includes Justice Mary McGowan Davis and Doudou Diène. Israel has been sharply critical of the terms of the inquiry and the choice of Schabas as chair. Schabas has a record of statements against Israel and its leaders, including saying that Netanyahu would be his “favourite” to be in the dock of the International Criminal Court.

McGowan Davis is a former Justice of the Supreme Court of the State of New York and served as Chair of the UN Committee of Independent Experts tasked with following up on the findings of the Goldstone Inquiry into Operation Cast Lead. Doudou Diène is a lawyer from Senegal who has worked as a UN expert on racism.

The UNHRC is itself widely regarded as institutionally biased against Israel, passing far more resolutions against Israel than any other country. The Goldstone Report, commissioned by the UNHRC following Operation Cast Lead in 2009, accused Israel of deliberately targeting civilians, a charge subsequently withdrawn by the committee chair Richard Goldstone. Israel did not formally cooperate with the Goldstone inquiry, and Israel has not yet decided if and how it will cooperate with the Schabas inquiry.

Meanwhile teams from both Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch (HRW) have been seeking access to the Gaza Strip to conduct investigations into possible war crimes. HRW has already issued a report accusing Israel of violating the laws of war in relations to three incidents in which UN-run schools were hit. Based on previous cases, they and other NGOs can be expected to issue further reports with strong accusations against Israel. In the past, critics have challenged such reports for being conducted by individuals without adequate military expertise, based on partial evidence, and using spurious interpretations of international law.

Various Israeli inquiries underway

Israel’s chief military prosecutor announced on 10 September that it was opening criminal investigations into five incidents related to IDF conduct in the Gaza Strip. They include the strike on a Gaza beach on 18 July, which killed four children, and the shelling of a United Nations-run school in Beit Hanoun on 24 July.

Maj. Gen. Noam Tivon has been tasked by Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz to investigate the conduct of the IDF during the conflict including particular incidents that involved the deaths of Palestinian civilians. The inquiry is being conducted by officers who were not directly involved in the fighting and is ongoing. A similar IDF internal inquiry was conducted after Operation Cast Lead. Its results were reviewed by the Military Advocate General and led to disciplinary action and criminal investigations in some cases.

Separately, the Israeli State Comptroller Joseph Shapiro, an independent figure who answers to the Knesset, announced in mid-August that he would investigate military and political leadership during the conflict; including accusations of breaches of international law. He will also look at how the government handled the threat of tunnels and the lack of provision of bomb shelters in Bedouin areas.

The Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee of the Knesset began holding hearings on the conflict even as it was underway and has announced that will produce a report, some of which will be made public.

Some have also proposed a former Supreme Court Justice conduct an additional independent inquiry into accusation against IDF conduct.

Palestinians seeking UN support for state in three years

Meanwhile, PLO officials led by Mahmoud Abbas have been promoting a proposal for the establishment of a Palestinian state within three years. Abbas may also seek UN support at the forthcoming annual General Assembly meeting towards the end of September. US Secretary of State John Kerry has reportedly warned the Palestinians that the US would veto any attempt to bring a unilateral plan to the UN Security Council. Nonetheless, the Arab League has backed Palestinian proposals to take the plan to the UN.

The Palestinians are calling for the renewal of negotiations with Israel for nine months, with borders to be determined within three months, during which time there will be a settlement freeze. The Palestinians are threatening that if the plan is rejected they will pursue Israel in the International Criminal Court. If the Palestinians fail to win Security Council support for this proposal, they may seek a General Assembly resolution. Israel announced that it was suspending final status negotiations with the Palestinians after President Abbas formed a reconciliation government with the backing of Hamas in May, though Prime Minister Netanyahu has spoken in general terms in recent weeks about the desire to renew peace talks, and some Israeli ministers are calling for a resumption of talks.