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Analysis

BICOM Briefing: Clashes on the Golan

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Last Update: 10.30, 29/1/2015

Key Points

  • The recent violence across the Israeli-Syrian ceasefire lines has been triggered by Hezbollah and Iran establishing infrastructure to attack Israel from the Syrian Golan.
  • Hezbollah and Iran would like to extend their front against Israel into Syria, and to deter Israel from military action in Syria.
  • Israel is keen to prevent any party using the Syrian Golan as a base to attack Israel, but also keen to avoid an escalation that could trigger a major conflict with Hezbollah.
  • Hezbollah is heavily committed to fighting on behalf of Assad in Syria, and suffers declining legitimacy in Lebanon and the Arab world, explaining its preference to avoid fighting a full-blown conflict with Israel from Lebanon.
  • Since both sides would rather avoid a full blown confrontation, this may be avoided for now, but future clashes are likely, and could escalate out of control.

What is the background to the current tensions?

  • The death of two IDF soldiers in a Hezbollah strike on 28 January follows an incident on 18 January, in which an air strike in the Syrian Golan, presumed to have been carried out by Israel, killed several Hezbollah commanders and an Iranian Revolutionary Guard general. Those killed including Jihad Mughniyeh, the son of the late Hezbollah military leader Imad Mughniyeh, and Iranian General Mohammad Allahdadi. Iran and Hezbollah had threatened to respond and Israel was expecting retaliation in some form.
  • The presence of Hezbollah and Iranian officers on the Syrian Golan reflects their attempts to establish a new front for Hezbollah to attack Israel, including through rocket attacks and border infiltrations. There were several incidents on the Israeli-Syrian ceasefire line during 2014 for which Israel considered Hezbollah responsible. These include an incident on 22 June 2014, when an anti-tank missile was fired at an Israeli civilian car close to the border killing 14-year-old Muhammad Karaka.
  • Israeli Defence Minister Moshe Ya’alon said last week: “We understood that they apparently want to upgrade it to high-quality and far more significant terrorist attacks.”
  • Hezbollah’s attempts to establish infrastructure to attack Israel from Syria is a major strategic shift which threatens to expand the threat to Israeli security to the Golan. Hezbollah previously attacked Israel only from Lebanon. For 40 years after the 1973 War, the Syrian-Israeli ceasefire line had been almost completely quiet.
  • Hezbollah would also like to deter Israel from taking military action inside Syria – for example targeting weapons transfers from Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon – without having to act against Israel from Lebanon, which could trigger another major conflict across the Israeli-Lebanese border.
  • The Second Lebanon War in 2006 saw thousands of Hezbollah rockets fired at Israel and a major Israeli military operation against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Since then the Israeli-Lebanese border has been largely quiet.

What is likely to happen next?

  • Since both sides would rather avoid a full blown confrontation, this may be avoided for now, but future clashes are likely, and could escalate out of control.
  • It is unclear whether Hezbollah, and particularly Iran, consider the score to have been settled after the killing of the two IDF soldiers. Iran especially may not be satisfied, and there may be attempts on Israeli or Jewish targets around the world.
  • In addition, Hezbollah and Iran will likely continue their efforts to establish infrastructure on the Golan and transfer weaponry, which may trigger another Israeli intervention.

What is Israeli policy with respect to the situation?

  • Israel has sought to avoid becoming entangled in the Syrian Civil War and has focussed on preventing developments which directly impact its security.
  • Israel wants to deter any party in Syria, including Hezbollah or Sunni Jihadist groups, from using Syria as a base to attack Israel.
  • Israel has also sought to prevent the transfer of advanced weaponry from Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon, including advanced ground to ground and ground to sea missiles, and is believed to have carried out a number of airstrikes to prevent such transfers.
  • At the same time Israel is keen to avoid an escalation that could lead to a full blown conflict with Hezbollah, which has a huge arsenal of rockets, which pose a major threat to Israeli civilian and strategic targets. Hezbollah’s arsenal includes Fateh 110, medium-range, precision-guided missiles.

What is Hezbollah and what threat does it pose?

  • Hezbollah is an armed, radical, Shia Islamist group in Lebanon, loyal to Iran, whose political representatives and allies are part of the current Lebanese government.
  • Hezbollah is ideologically committed to the destruction of the State of Israel. Its abduction of two Israeli soldiers on the Israeli-Lebanese border in July 2006 triggered the Second Lebanon War, during which the group fired more than 4,000 rockets at Israeli towns and cities. Since the war the Israeli-Lebanese border has been quiet but Hezbollah has rearmed, and is estimated to have 100,000 missiles covering all of Israel.
  • The group was established in the early 1980s during the Lebanese civil war under the initiative, guidance and support of Iran. It is committed to Iran’s ideology of Islamic revolution, coordinates activities closely with the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, and depends principally on Iran for finance, training and arms.
  • Hezbollah, along with Iran, is a close ally of the Assad regime in Syria, and the participation of Hezbollah forces fighting in Syria for Assad has played a crucial role in the war. Hezbollah’s participation in the Syrian civil war has severely damaged its image in the Sunni Arab world, and undermined the credibility of its claim that its military forces are intended only as a resistance force against Israel.
  • Hezbollah’s participation in the Syrian civil war also reduces its capacity and interest to escalate its conflict with Israel. Its reduced legitimacy in the Arab world and inside Lebanon increases its reluctance to attack Israel from Lebanon, which would risk triggering a conflict that would be very destructive for Lebanon. Hezbollah likely calculates that they have a better chance of containing any conflict if they attack Israel from Syria, or the disputed Shab’a Farms (Har Dov) area which lies between Israel, Syria and Lebanon.
  • Hezbollah uses its independent military forces, which are the most powerful in Lebanon, to intimidate and sometimes eliminate political opposition. Four of its operatives were indicted in 2011 by an international tribunal for the 2005 assassination of former Sunni Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri.
  • Hezbollah also carries out terrorism worldwide against Israeli and Jewish targets. Bulgarian authorities believe Hezbollah carried out the bomb attack in Burgas in 2012 which killed five Israeli tourists and their Bulgarian driver. In 2013, Hezbollah’s military wing was designated as a terrorist group by the European Union.