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Analysis

Left Foot Forward: What Israeli Labour does next, by Toby Greene

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The Israeli Labour party – merged with Tzipi Livni’s ‘Hatnua’ party and rebranded as Zionist Union for the 2015 election – just won by far its largest vote share since 1999, but it is not celebrating today. It is not just the fact that Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud outpolled Zionist Union by 30 seats to 24 that will leave it disappointed; it is the sense of missed opportunity.

Never had Netanyahu appeared more beatable. A broad-based anti-Bibi campaign in Israel included much of the print media and massed ranks of former military officers and security officials. The Likud party list looked tired and spent, and their campaign was devoid of substance. Netanyahu himself was beset with a personal scandal surrounding the misuse of public funds in his household; found himself blamed in a state report into the housing market crisis; and drove into a headlong collision with the White House.

The BICOM Poll of Polls showed him in steady decline over the last six weeks of the campaign, predicted to get 21 seats, with Zionist Union on 25.  The Israeli political commentariat widely anticipated a poor showing, to the point where Netanyahu himself appeared in panic.

But Israeli elections usually defy pollsters predictions, partly because they are unable to identify late swings among undecided voters, in what is a very volatile electorate. Netanyahu apparently won back supporters in the final days with a late campaign blitz. He took to the media to stress the security threats facing Israel, and convinced voters that wanted him to remain prime minister – still the majority in Israel – that he was about to be replaced by a left-wing government that would endanger the country.

To read the article in full go to Left Foot Forward.