BICOM

BICOM Senior Visiting Fellow Michael Herzog has been a participant in nearly all Israeli-Palestinian negotiations since 1993. In this important essay, first published in Fathom, he argues that while set-piece bilateral talks seeking a final status agreement may be counterproductive in the current climate, there is much that Israel can do now, even without a Palestinian partner, in order to maintain the possibility of a two-state solution at a later date.

From my perspective as someone who has participated in nearly all Israeli-Palestinian negotiations since 1993, the bilateral Israeli-Palestinian arena looks as bleak as I can remember. The last effort at a comprehensive peace solution – the Kerry-led negotiations in 2013-2014 – collapsed, adding despair on both sides to the prospects of a two-state solution. On the Palestinian side, leadership has weakened, with Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) having lost considerable domestic legitimacy according to consistent Palestinian opinion polls, and likely nearing the end of his rule at age 81. He is talking openly about stepping down and people around him are already positioning themselves towards the “day after”.

The Palestinian Authority (PA) is weak and divided between two political entities, one in the West Bank ruled by Fatah and one in Gaza ruled by Hamas, with the current situation in Gaza resembling a powder keg. For nearly a year we have witnessed a wave of violence (now generally receding with occasional eruptions) in the West Bank and in some cases in Israel, including stabbings, car ramming attacks and other terror attacks against Israelis carried out by young disgruntled Palestinians. On the Israeli side, there is a right-wing coalition, reflecting the reality of Israeli society increasingly turning to the right under the pressure of repeatedly failed peace efforts and Palestinian terror waves. This coalition, some of whose members do not believe in a two-state solution, limits the prime minister’s ability to manoeuvre on the political front, to the extent he wants to. Meanwhile the American role in our region has weakened and the upcoming American elections paralyse potential international initiatives.

The dramatic upheavals in our region offer a mixed balance sheet to the Israeli-Palestinian arena. On the one hand they fragment and destabilise the region, weaken the state system and generate extreme jihadism across the region. Looking at this mess, Israelis and Palestinians should be incentivised to avert further instability in their own bilateral yard. While this unfortunately has not happened, Israel and some of the major Arab states have been drawn closer together by strong converging interests, namely the threats of extreme violent Islamist jihadism, an empowered Iranian-led axis, regional instability as a whole and the weakening US role. In this context some of the major Arab stakeholders, highly concerned about the weakening of the Palestinian system and the potential empowerment of Hamas, are willing to play a role in providing both space and cover to Israelis and Palestinians in advancing the two-state solution. This should be regarded as an opportunity.

Read the full article in Fathom.