BICOM

To accompany BICOM’s forecast of the year ahead, The Middle East in 2018, BICOM asked six renowned Middle East experts for their three predictions for 2018.

1. As in Iran, civil unrest and localised protests will increase across the Middle East, as a reminder to regional leaderships to meet domestic expectations over economic reforms. On the “seven year itch” principle, a new post-Arab Spring generation is coming of age with worse prospects for their ambitions and potential than in 2010-11. Precisely because the Middle East will see a return to growth in 2018, people will take to the streets where perceptions of official corruption are high. Demands will be less about regime change and democracy than the impact of rising living costs, taxation, joblessness and official impunity. Particularly vulnerable are Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, and Gaza should the Fatah-Hamas agreement fail. North Africa (Morocco to Libya) and Saudi Arabia will also not be immune.

2. Regional and external powers with an agenda they can act on will continue to dominate developments in the Middle East, notwithstanding few conclusive outcomes this year. Russia, Turkey and Iran will hold firm on strategic issues that matter to them, even as they fail to broker peace in Syria or resolve the threat posed by Kurdish activism (PYD/PKK for Turkey). The EU and US will remain second rung bystanders to the region’s conflicts due to their lack of consensus, strategy and material backing for enforceable solutions to the co5rtgfvj7ufgflicts in Syria, Yemen and Libya. China will continue to acquire economic assets across the region, gaining political leverage, if not yet an overtly diplomatic role. Saudi Arabia will suffer from initiative overload, both externally and internally, while Qatar quietly thrives.

3. Regional and/or internationally-brokered peace between Israel and the Palestinians will make no headway through traditional channels, but some changes to the political landscape (the judicial removal of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu; the forced resignation of PA President Mahmoud Abbas) will provoke internal re-alignments on both sides. New forms of civic activism will not be enough to compensate for the lack of leadership, meaning that the risk of spontaneous violence, along with official and covert conflicts remains high.

Dr Claire Spencer is a Senior Research Fellow at Chatham House