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2018 predictions: Jonathan Spyer

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To accompany BICOM’s forecast of the year ahead, The Middle East in 2018, BICOM asked six renowned Middle East experts for their three predictions for 2018.

1. As the regime side in the Syrian war continues to gain ground at the expense of the declining rebellion, a central concern to observe is the emergent contest of will between Israel and Iran on the soil of southern Syria. Iran has ensured its land corridor by the conquest of Abu Kamal on the Syria-Iraq border. Israel considers that the Iranians want to create an infrastructure directed against Israel in southern Syria, and Israel is determined to prevent this. As a result, the possibility of friction between Israel and Iran and its allies in Syria/Lebanon has increased.

2. Elections are due to take place in Iraq in May 2018. The elections will center on the contest between pro-Iran factions and figures including the Badr Organization and former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, and their opponents, such as Muqtada al-Sadr and former Prime Minister Iyad al Allawi. Crucial to observe will be the role played by the militias of the Popular Mobilization Forces (Hashd al-Shaabi). A number of significant Shia militia components of the PMF have registered to take part in the elections (against the wishes of Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi). Sectarian tensions are likely to increase in Iraq around the time of the polls.

3. The US has recently made clear that it intends to maintain forces in Syria east of the Euphrates for the foreseeable future. Iran and Bashar al-Assad have been equally clear that they regard any such US presence as unacceptable. At present, US-supported and Iran/Russia supported forces are facing each other along the river. Exploratory probes from the Iran/Assad/Russia side intended to test US resolve (which these players may well take to be wavering, and vulnerable to pressure), are likely in the year ahead.

Dr Jonathan Spyer is a fellow at the Middle East Forum.