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2018 predictions: Sir John Jenkins

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To accompany BICOM’s forecast of the year ahead, The Middle East in 2018, BICOM asked six renowned Middle East experts for their three predictions for 2018.

1. The recent protests in Iran show that no one really knows when something significant is going to occur in the region. US financial pressure on the IRGC – combined with the domestic protests – could potentially stop Iran being so involved overseas. In light of this, this would be an ideal opportunity for the US to reinsert itself back “into the game” and dial down Iranian activity around the region more widely. Yet so much depends on strategic policy coherence in Washington which is not a given.

2. The next big flash point may occur in southern Syria, which is one of the last places in the Middle East where all the major players – Hezbollah, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Jordan – can come into contact.

3. While the biggest domestic test for Saudi Arabia is job creation, subsidies issues by Crown Prince Mohamed Bin Salman’s (MBS) to assuage domestic public opinion are making it harder to wean people off the public sector. MBS’ strategic goal is clear, but structural deficiencies are forcing him to adopt contradictory policies not aligned with bringing Saudi Arabia socially and economically into the 21st century. The contradiction between the sense of urgency from MBS and the need for strategic patience to implement significant parts of his plan will likely begin to emerge in 2018.

Sir John Jenkins is Executive Director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies