“What will determine the character — and possibly even the survival — of the current government, with its coalition of 94 MKs, is not how the evacuation is approved, but the way in which it is executed.

For example, the evacuation of a similarly disputed house in Hebron in April proceeded smoothly and was forgotten the next day. Yet the evacuation of the illegal outpost of Amona in 2006 was violent and ugly, and even now, more than six years later, its wounds have yet to heal. Nine single-storey buildings were evacuated in Amona. In Ulpana, five three-storey buildings comprising 30 apartments are slated for demolition. Unless everyone reaches an understanding and commits to a quiet evacuation within four weeks, the real political drama will begin.

After more than three years in power, the Ulpana affair has presented yet another challenge for Netanyahu’s government: The vote on the outpost arrangement bill (scheduled for Wednesday) will be the first time such a controversial proposal will have been put up for a vote at the Knesset. The proposal threatens to rip apart the delicate relationship between Left and Right, between lovers of the court system and lovers of the land, within the coalition and even within the ruling Likud party itself.”

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