The two Fajr/M-75 rockets fired at Tel Aviv on the evening of March 14, 2019 caught the Israeli security establishment – as well as the political echelon – by complete surprise. Whether the rocket fire was a mistake, as declared by Hamas and the IDF, or intentional, both the rockets and the Israeli response are further evidence that Hamas continues its policy of defiance while controlling escalation and dictating the rules of the game with Israel. This means that Israel’s policy of deterrence with regard to Hamas and the other organizations active in the Strip has been eroded. Israel’s current policy, which seeks to contain escalation by easing the closure and strengthening deterrence, fails to deal with the area’s fundamental problems. The Gaza Strip is experiencing a longstanding humanitarian crisis with no hope of reconstruction; it is ruled by Hamas, a radical element waging terrorist activity against Israel; and the chances that the PA will regain control of Gaza are rapidly diminishing. To resolve these problems, Israel may take one of two radical approaches. One approach is to grant official recognition to the Hamas regime in the Gaza Strip and sever the area’s connection with the West Bank. The second option is a military confrontation to dismantle the military wing of Hamas and the other terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip. To pursue either option, Israel must display the will and preparedness for a wide scale military confrontation against Hamas’s military capabilities that will change the rules of the game that have become rooted over recent years. The Israeli government is urged to abandon its concept of deterrence against Hamas because its validity has eroded, and instead strive to change its Gaza Strip policy in an effort to transform the area from the ground up.

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