The Assad regime has been able to secure its objectives thus far because it has managed to maintain loyalty, obedience, and operational capabilities among its main power sources: The army, security arms, Alawite sect and the business community. Syria imposes a mandatory army service and military units are therefore mostly heterogeneous. Members of all sects serve and have been trained to obey, even if these are Sunnis or Kurds who secretly despise the regime. They also know that security officers operating alongside them, and even low-ranking officers within their units, will not hesitate to shoot them in the back should they refuse orders.

Despite this, quite a few Sunni soldiers and low-ranking commanders defected thus far. Yet for the time being at least, it appears that we should not be impressed with these rather sporadic defections. They don’t threaten the regime and cannot even paralyze the units in question. Shaul Menashe, an Iraqi-born expert on Mideastern affairs, says that as a rule, an army threatens the regime only when a significant number of senior commanders in the large corps switch allegiances and come out against the regime in an organized manner. The military key is held by top generals, division commanders and Air Force chiefs.”

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