Dahaf poll: Kadima would be the largest party if headed by Tzipi Livni

The result that Kadima remains the largest party if headed by Livni cuts both ways:

• On the one hand it makes it more tempting to dump Olmert.
• On the other hand, if one thinks that this support for Livni is stable, there is no reason for Kadima to rush to do anything since the distaste of the Israeli public is apparently for Olmert rather than Kadima.

This may explain why Livni has opted to distance herself from Olmert for the time being so that should and when he has to leave she has such an overwhelming support in the polls that Kadima will have no choice but choose here as Olmert's replacement.

Dahaf poll of 500 adult Israelis (including Israeli Arabs) conducted apparently on 11 May 2008 for Yediot Ahronot. Statistical error +/- 4.5 percentage points.

Should Olmert continue in his position or resign or take a leave of absence?

• Resign 59%
• Remain 33%
• No reply 8%

Is Olmert able to lead diplomatic/state processes despite the investigation against him?

• No 60%
• Yes 38%
• No reply 2%

There are those who claim that the police and the prosecution and State Comptroller are picking on Olmert.  Do you agree?

• Yes 26%
• No 70%
• No reply 4%

Who is most appropriate to be prime minister?

• Netanyahu 37%
• Barak 20%
• Olmert 10%

If Olmert resigns who is the most appropriate to take his place as head of Kadima?

• Livni 41%
• Mofaz 16%
• Dichter 13%
• Shitreet 8%
• None of them/no reply 22%

If elections were held today how would you vote (expressed in mandates - no indication how many were undecided) Actual Knesset today in [brackets]

Option #1 Kadima headed by Olmert

• 28 [12] Likud
• 19 [19] Labor
• 12 [29] Kadima headed by Olmert
• 10 [12] Shas
• 08 [05] Meretz
• 08 [11] Yisrael Beteinu
• 08 [09] Nat'l Union/NRP
• 03 [00] Social Justice (Gaydamak Party)

Option #2 Kadima headed by Livni

• 23 [12] Likud
• 15 [19] Labor
• 27 [29] Kadima headed by Livni
• 10 [12] Shas
• 08 [05] Meretz
• 08 [11] Yisrael Beteinu
• 08 [09] Nat'l Union/NRP
• 03 [00] Social Justice (Gaydamak Party)

Option #3 Kadima headed by Mofaz

• 26 [12] Likud
• 19 [19] Labor
• 17 [29] Kadima headed by Mofaz
• 10 [12] Shas
• 08 [05] Meretz
• 08 [11] Yisrael Beteinu
• 08 [09] Nat'l Union/NRP
• 02 [00] Social Justice (Gaydamak Party)

Option #4 Kadima headed by Shitreet

• 28 [12] Likud
• 18 [19] Labor
• 13 [29] Kadima headed by Shitreet
• 10 [12] Shas
• 08 [05] Meretz
• 08 [11] Yisrael Beteinu
• 08 [09] Nat'l Union/NRP
• 03 [00] Social Justice (Gaydamak Party)

N.B. Results for Arab parties, Yahadut Hatorah and Retirees Party not reported

Published in Yediot Ahronot on 12 May 2008

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