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Analysis

BICOM Analysis: Fatah’s General Conference and the future of Palestinian politics

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Key Points

  • Fatah’s Sixth General Conference, due to be held 4-6 August in Bethlehem, is an opportunity many Palestinians have been desperately waiting for to renew the dysfunctional faction’s aging leadership and make way for the frustrated younger generation of leaders who grew up in the Palestinian Territories.
  • Having failed to implement real reform or tackle corruption, without a diplomatic breakthrough for an independent Palestine, and threatened by the rise of Islamist opposition in Hamas, this is a critical time for Fatah.
  • The rivalry between the Fatah-dominated West Bank and Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip which characterises Palestinian politics today has tended to overshadow the deep internal splits within Fatah itself. There are serious questions about how far the party can achieve renewal and unity at this time.
  • Hamas has been trying to obstruct the conference and stir tensions which have escalated within Fatah lately. But if the event is perceived as a success, it could be significant for Cairo’s efforts to broker a deal between Hamas and Fatah and for US efforts to persuade Mahmoud Abbas to return to peace talks with Israel.

Introduction

On Tuesday, 4 August, Fatah plans to hold its Sixth General Conference since its founding in 1959 by Yasser Arafat and others.[i]  That the conference is due to take place is itself significant; it has been twenty years since the last such gathering was convened.  For many Fatah activists, it presents an opportunity for renewal of the secular national leadership of the Palestinian people.  Yet a complex web of divisions runs deep within Fatah and throughout Palestinian politics, creating considerable uncertainty around this important event.  This document sets out the context and nature of the conference, the type of change that might be invoked and possible implications for Palestinian unity talks and Israeli-Palestinian relations.

Background: from crisis to conference

On 24 June, Fatah held an emergency meeting and agreed to hold the organisation’s Sixth General Conference on 4 August in Bethlehem.[ii]  Amid ongoing uncertainty as to whether it will go ahead after repeated delays, the organising committee released a final schedule of the three day conference last Friday.[iii]  Elections will be held for the 21-seat Fatah Central Committee, which serves as the party executive, and the 120-member Revolutionary Council, the second most important Fatah institution.  Though the Fatah leadership is supposed to be elected every five years, internal rifts have meant no forum has been held since 1989.  Long-time leaders have repeatedly sought to delay it.

Fatah today is in a state of deepening crisis.  Notably, in the 2006 general election, rival Fatah candidates contested against each other in the same electoral districts, thereby splitting their own vote.  Along with widespread corruption, this severely damaged the party and enabled Hamas’s victory, ending Fatah’s domination of Palestinian politics.  With Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) and presidential elections due in January 2010, the need for cohesion within Fatah’s ranks is becoming ever more pressing.  If the conference goes ahead as planned, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will seek to reinvigorate the party with fresh blood in support of his political agenda.[iv]

Changing of the guard?

Divisions within Fatah are manifold.  There are personal clashes and alliances, rifts between the various party bodies, and tensions between affiliated armed groups (the popular committees, Al Aqsa Brigades and Tanzim), branch chiefs and district heads.[v]  Leaders also hold contrasting political outlooks vis-à-vis the peace process and attitudes towards ‘resistance’ – the use of violence to obtain the movement’s goals.[vi]

The greatest fault line over the last two decades is between the ‘old guard’ and the ‘young guard’ leaderships.  The veteran old guard is itself subdivided into those who came to the Palestinian Territories from Tunis with Arafat in 1994 and run the Palestinian Authority (PA) today and Fatah’s leaders abroad.  It is those within the Palestinian Territories that have long feared losing power to the younger generation of Fatah activists who grew up locally, led operations during the First and Second Intifadas, and are frustrated by the nepotism and manipulations of their elders.[vii]  This rift makes every aspect of this week’s conference politically sensitive, from who attends and the choice of location to substantive issues about future policy and strategy.

Despite the old-timers’ initial preference for invitations to be restricted to around 650, Azzam Al-Ahmad, head of the Fatah bloc of the PLC, stated over the weekend that 2,265 delegates would attend.[viii]  Most delegates will be ‘insiders’ from within the PLC, PA security forces and local grassroots branches.  Whilst this should play to Abbas’s advantage, he also has an interest in the conference being broadly representative, so as to ensure its legitimacy in the eyes of the movement and on the Palestinian street.

Actual numbers will not be clear until the conference gets underway.  Israel, for its part, has been cooperating with the PA to facilitate the arrival of delegates from Arab countries via the Allenby Bridge crossing from Jordan.[ix]  But the main opposition to Fatah in Palestinian politics, Hamas, has been trying to scupper the event.  It demands the release of up to 900 Hamas followers being held in PA West Bank prisons before authorising some 400 Gaza-based Fatah delegates to attend.[x]  Its interest is in its political rivals remaining weak and divided. Ironically, it is a shared disdain for Hamas that offers the greatest hope of renewal and unity within Fatah this week.

But it is also unclear to what extent Abbas’s rivals within Fatah – of which he has many – will boycott the affair.  A senior leader, Mohammed Ghneim (better known as Abu Maher), has entered the Territories, and he plans to run for a top post in the party hierarchy.  Another of Fatah’s founders, Farouk Qaddumi, has refused to attend and remains in Tunis.  Qaddumi has always fundamentally opposed the peace process and any form of compromise with Israel.  In a carefully timed move to destabilise the Mahmoud Abbas’s leadership ahead of the conference, he produced a transcript accusing Abbas and former security commander Mohammed Dahlan, a  senior young guard figure who advises the president, of conspiring with Israel and the US to assassinate Arafat.  They have denied it vehemently, but the media frenzy has led some to seek to debate the issue at the conference.  Aged 78, Qaddumi is among those expected to be ousted.

Whilst experienced Palestinian observers such as Abu Zaida and Khalil Shikaki are optimistic that the conference will bring meaningful change, with more than half the current leadership being replaced, leading young guard representatives such as Hatem Abdel Kader and Husam Khader have been sceptical in the conference build-up.  Kader said over the weekend that the veterans had the money and resources to defeat them for the most coveted Central Committee seats.[xi]  Notably, however, the prominent Fatah young guard leader Marwan Barghouti, who was convicted by Israel on five counts of murder in 2004, is running for a seat from his prison cell, possibly unopposed.[xii]  A strong win for Barghouti could help be the basis for a future presidential campaign when Abbas leaves office.

Fatah’s political agenda

With Fatah preoccupied by pre-conference political jostling, little energy seems to be going into substantive policy reform.  A draft ‘political plan’ leaked to Arab press over the weekend indicates intentions to oppose recognition of Israel as a Jewish state and to consider opening a strategic dialogue with Iran.[xiii]  Although Abbas and others in Fatah are sincere in their commitment to non-violent means, the plan also proposes reiterating Fatah’s long-held option of ‘armed resistance’ in order to achieve an independent Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital.  This would be to reject the wish of some Fatah activists who want to bring the party in line with PLO’s formal renunciation of violence agreed as part of the Oslo accords.  Nabil Shaath, considered a genuine moderate, says that Fatah is dedicated to peace talks, but that ‘armed struggle’ will remain in official documentation as a theoretical right.[xiv]

These issues have practical implications on the streets of the West Bank.  The ‘resistance’ narrative frequently crops up in Fatah rhetoric. Just last week, Barghouti said in an interview that Fatah would not abandon the option of armed struggle as long as a single Israeli soldier was located in the Palestinian Territories.[xv]  But recourse to violence would be deeply problematic for Abbas. His newly trained PA security forces have begun clamping down on paramilitary groups operating in the West Bank. His strong relationship with the US and the future prospects for peace negotiations with Israel are premised on his commitment to non violence.

Owing to these entrenched political difficulties, Abbas seeks to contain his own party to enable him to pursue his aims in government.  Under US pressure, he has stuck with his independent ally, Salam Fayyad, as prime minister, and denied Fatah key ministerial portfolios – a further source of friction, and a further rationale for trying to create unity.  He stated recently that “Fatah must be a companion to the PA” but noted that “Fatah is not the Authority”.[xvi]

Towards broader negotiations

Even if Fatah can renew itself this week, the big challenge hanging over the Palestinian arena will remain the geopolitical division between the West Bank-based PA and Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip.  A successful Fatah conference could impact on the protracted Egyptian-brokered ‘national unity’ talks.  The dialogue is essentially aimed at reaching an interim understanding which both Fatah and Hamas can live with until general elections are held.[xvii]  But Egypt has been struggling to secure agreement even on some form of temporary joint committee. 

A deal may become more likely as a result of a renewed Fatah leadership in which Barghouti and other ‘Young Guard’ types may be more willing to cooperate with Hamas. Barghouti is a popular figure in Palestinian society with credentials as a unifier. In 2006 he presented the ‘prisoners’ document’, outlining an agreement between five Palestinian factions including Hamas that garnered widespread support. However, it is unclear how Hamas would react. Their response is likely to be affected by whether they assess elections, which would follow on from a unity government, to be in their interest. The absence of Fatah delegates from Gaza at this week’s conference as a result of Hamas’s refusal to allow them to attend will sour the negotiations climate.  The next round of Cairo talks are scheduled for 25 August.

As regards the wider region, the picture is pretty clear-cut so far as this week is concerned. The West, Israel and most Sunni Arab states all want the conference to go smoothly, whilst their foes in the Iran-led bloc would rejoice at the reverse.  Whilst all recognise the deep flaws in Fatah, the consensus among moderates is that it offers the only mainstream force for compromise in Palestinian politics.  “Any blow to Fatah at this convention will be a blow to the international vision of solving the conflict,” says Palestinian analyst Khaled Hroub.[xviii]  Israeli analyst Yossi Alpher agrees.[xix]  On the flipside, a chaotic affair which does little to bolster Abbas, reinvigorate his party or offer impetus for wider peace negotiations, would serve a victory to Hamas and its patrons in Tehran and Damascus.

Conclusion

Last time Fatah held a general conference it was able to dictate the Palestinian cause.  Today it is locked in a power struggle with Hamas.  The younger generation of Fatah activists are worried.  As one observes, “The average age of the Palestinian leaders, specifically in Fatah, is approximately 70 years.  A youthful leadership, such as in Hamas, owns the political future… because the average age of the Hamas leaders is 45 years.”[xx]  Qaddura Fares, a leading Fatah advocate of change and peace with Israel, said in May, “We are on a sinking ship… We have to wake up and stop lying to ourselves.”[xxi]

The international community wants to see a rejuvenated Fatah and an emboldened Abbas, which would strengthen Palestinian nationalists and undermine their Islamist opponents.  A key question will be whether Abbas ends the conference with greater legitimacy than before, and whether a new leadership will emerge that is capable of providing new energy for the future.  This is a sensitive moment for Fatah.

 


[i] ‘Fatah’ (or ‘Fateh’) is the reverse acronym of the Arabic Harakat al-Tahrir al-Watani al-Filastini (which literally means ‘Palestinian National Liberation Organization’).

[ii] ‘Fatah Sixth Conference To Be Held In August The 4th In Bethlehem’, Palestine Media Center, 25 June 2009.

[iii] ‘Fatah releases agenda, elections rules for conference’, Maan News Agency, 31 July 2009.

[iv] ‘Abbas willing to continue peace talks if Israel halts settlement construction’, Maan News Agency, 7 July 2009.

[v] Ethan Bronner, ‘Palestinians Try to Prune Branches of Core Party’, The New York Times, 21 May 2009; Avi Issacharoff, ‘Dispute with Hamas may derail major Fatah convention’, Haaretz, 31 July 2009.

[vi] Some analysts triangulate ‘moderates’ who drove and supported the Oslo Accords in the 1990s, ‘radicals’ who continue to reject its core principles, and ‘hardliners’, whose views are close to those held by Arafat and so dim the prospects for a final status compromise.  See, for instance,  Barry Rubin, ‘The Region: Fatah’s power structure spells trouble for peace with Israel’, The Jerusalem Post, 26 July 2009.

[vii] Among them is Marwan Barghouti, who commanded Fatah’s armed wing, the Al Aqsa Brigades.  Along with Hatem Abdel Kader, Hussam Khader, and others, Barghouti has long been campaigning for Fatah leaders to step aside and pave the way for new leadership.

[viii] ‘Fatah committee confirms delegate count’, Maan News Agency, 1 August 2009; Ethan Bronner, The New York Times, 21 May 2009

[ix] ‘Top Fatah leader back in W. Bank after over 40 years in exile’, Associated Press/The Jerusalem Post, 29 July 2009; ‘Top Fatah figure Abu Maher Ghneim returns to West Bank’, Maan News Agency, 29 July 2009.

[x] According to a Palestinian news agency, some Fatah members have resorted to smuggling themselves out of Gaza, which has led Hamas to summon virtually all Fatah delegates to report to the Interior Ministry in Gaza.  A female Fatah delegate, Ghalya Abu Setah, managed to slip out of Gaza by donkey last Friday.  A deal was reportedly done last week but Hamas apparently upped the ante since then.  See ‘Fatah woman smuggles self out of Gaza’, Maan News Agency, 31 July 2009; ‘Hamas adds demands to alleged deal for safe passage of Fatah members’, Maan News Agency, 29 July 2009.

[xi] Khaled Abu Toameh, ”Old guard’ want to keep young reps out of Fatah’, The Jerusalem Post, 1 August 2009.

[xii] ‘Jailed Fatah leader Marwan Barghouti to run unopposed as candidate for Central Committee of Fatah Movement in the General Conference’, Al-Quds Al-Arabi, 25 July 2009; Avi Issacharoff, ‘Report: Fatah to oppose recognizing Israel as Jewish state’, Haaretz, 1 August 2009.

[xiii] For more information about Fatah policy, see Itamar Marcus and Nan Jacques Zilberdik,  ‘Historic opportunity at Fatah Sixth General Conference’, Palestinian Media Watch, 28 July 2009; ‘Former PA minister: Fatah should ally with Iran’, Maan News Agency, 2 August 2009; Khaled Abu Toameh, ”Old guard’ want to keep young reps out of Fatah’,  The Jerusalem Post, 1 August 2009; Avi Issacharoff, ‘ Report: Fatah to oppose recognizing Israel as Jewish state’, Haaretz, 1 August 2009. The draft ‘plan’ is available online (in Arabic): www.fatehconf.ps/pdfs/fatehpolitical.pdf

[xiv] Avi Issacharoff, Haaretz, 1 August 2009.

[xv] See ‘Fatah disarray to continue despite talks’, Oxford Analytica, Global Strategic Analysis, 24 July 2009.

[xvi] ‘Abbas willing to continue peace talks if Israel halts settlement construction’, Maan News Agency, 7 July 2009.

[xvii] ‘Marwan Barghouthi urges Palestinian, Arab unity in face of Israeli crimes’, Maan News Agency, 26 June 2009.

[xviii] Avi Issacharoff, Haaretz, 1 August 2009.

[xix] Ibid.

[xx] Interview with Deputy Husam Khadir, by Walid Awad, from Ramallah: [“Fatah Is a False Witness on a Degenerate Era; I Hope that Abu-Mazin Will Restore to the Movement Its Role”], Al-Quds al-Arabi, 14.2.09, BBC Monitoring Middle East, 16 February 2009.

[xxi] Ethan Bronner, The New York Times, 21 May 2009.