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BICOM

Britain Israel Communications and Research Centre

Analysis

BICOM Briefing: PA President Abbas’s announcement and its implications

Category:

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Key points

  • Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas’s announcement that he will not stand for re-election is rooted in the deep political conflicts that plague the Palestinian political arena – most notably, the conflict between Fatah and Hamas and the ongoing divide between the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
  • Abbas has made similar announcements in the past and may be dissuaded in the coming months.
  • Despite Abbas’s criticism of the US administration’s policy in the region, the international community remains convinced that only an immediate resumption of negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian leadership will bring about the necessary progress and stability for both sides.

Background

  • Abbas’s announcement that he will not stand for re-election has attracted significant attention on the Palestinian street and drew immediate comment from Israel, the Middle East and the international community.
  • In a speech at the presidential compound in Ramallah on 5 November which was streamed live on Palestinian television, Abbas said that his decision was guided by the lack of progress on the Israeli-Palestinian diplomatic track. While the 74-year-old Palestinian leader praised the US administration, he also added that the Palestinians were surprised that the Americans ‘favoured the Israeli position.’[i]
  • Following the speech, Abbas received several phone calls from Israeli and international officials who called on the PA leader to reconsider his decision. Among those who spoke to Abbas were Israeli President Shimon Peres, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, King Abdullah of Jordan and Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak.

 

The sources of Abbas’s announcement and its implications

  • Abbas’s announcement is not immediate and will only take effect in several months, once elections are held. While Abbas has declared his intention to hold elections in January, there is deep doubt that these can actually be held on time. In addition, Hamas, which effectively controls the Gaza Strip, has already said that it will not accept elections in January and will prevent voting in Gaza.
  • In the past, Abbas has threatened that without a resolution of the political split between Fatah and Hamas, he will not continue in his role. Abbas announced his intention to hold elections in January as a threat against Hamas and now says he does not intend to stand for re-election, but has left open the door for reconsideration. If his conditions for resumption of negotiations with Israel are accepted, or if Hamas agrees to elections in June instead of January as part of a reconciliation agreement with Fatah, Abbas could justify staying in office.
  • The Palestinian leadership have hoped that the US administration would impose a freeze on Israel, and Abbas’s announcement is seen as an attempt to pressurise the White House in this regard.

    This is despite recurring calls from Israeli leaders for the immediate and unconditional resumption of peace talks with the Palestinian leadership. While the US continues to call for a halt to settlement construction, it is in fact now focusing its efforts on the resumption of negotiations.  Abbas has been left with the choice of a politically damaging climbdown, or continued intransigence which will make the PA look like the rejectionist element.

  • Israel has taken significant steps to improve the situation in the West Bank and create confidence in Abbas as a counterpart in the effort to make peace. Israel has agreed that no new settlements will be constructed and no land will be expropriated for existing settlements. In addition, there is an agreement with the US to ‘restrain’ construction in existing settlements for a fixed time period, which was described by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton as ‘unprecedented.’[ii] These steps have been taken despite the lack of significant gestures from Arab states to reciprocate Israeli gestures.
  • Despite these, Abbas has yet to agree to resume negotiations, mostly due to his fear that Hamas would use this to further discredit his position and undermine Fatah’s leadership.

What happens next?

  • Abbas will travel to Washington next week for meetings with US officials and it is very likely that a meeting with US President Barack Obama will be set. Obama will hope to dissuade Abbas from carrying out his decision and may offer his support, though no significant American change of policy is expected. The administration is determined to bring the sides back to the negotiating table and will continue to pursue this goal in the coming weeks.
  • Although speculation about possible replacements is premature, several names have already been mentioned. These include Mohammad Dahlan, who in the wake of the recent Fatah convention is seen as the most prominent figure in the Fatah movement’s central committee. Abu Maher Ghneim, Fatah’s number two, and one of its veterans in Tunisia, is also mentioned. The final name on the list of possible candidates is the former Tanzim leader and Fatah Parliament Member Marwan Barghouti, who is currently held in an Israeli prison for his involvement in the killing of several Israelis during the Second Intifada.

Further reading:

 

[i] ‘In a Warning to Obama, Abbas Quits Election,’ Time, 6 November 2009

[ii] ‘Clinton lauds Israel’s ‘unprecedented’ concessions,’ Jewish Telegraphic Agency, 1 November 2009