BICOM

Key points

• There is felt to be a growing consensus within the Israeli security establishment and among senior political advisors in Israel, that it is of paramount importance to preserve the position of Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas.
• Regardless of who is to blame for the current impasse, there is a sense that the ball is in Prime Minister Netanyahu’s court in this regard. For this reason, it is possible that a new Israeli initiative on the Palestinian track may be imminent. 
• Netanyahu will be considering the impact on Abbas of a deal to bring about the release of Gilad Shalit. If reports of a deal between Israel and Hamas to release Shalit turn out to be true, the need to strengthen the moderate Palestinian camp will increase. Whether or not a deal transpires, there is a clear international consensus on the need to get back to a credible peace process.
• Furthermore, the government of Israel considers that preserving the strategic relationship with the United States is of paramount importance, especially in the face of the threat from Iran. The emphatic message from Obama’s most senior advisors and senior Democrats is that the US President will use the considerable resources at his disposal to force the parties to move.
• The form that an Israeli initiative might take is not yet clear, however, a number of proposals are being discussed in the Israeli political arena.

 

Introduction

 

Abu Mazen’s announcement that he does not intend to stand again for the role of Palestinian president has increased the sense of urgency internationally and in Israel about what is at stake in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. The diplomatic process between Israelis and Palestinians is currently at stalemate. The Palestinian Authority leadership is maintaining its stance of refusing to re-start direct negotiations with Israel unless Israel orders a complete freeze on construction in West Bank settlements and in East Jerusalem. The government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has offered a partial moratorium on building in the West Bank. The Palestinian camp is in a state of internal disarray. Hamas’s exclusive control of the Gaza Strip continues and it has proved impossible to lay the basis for elections to the Palestinian Legislative Council and the chairmanship of the Palestinian Authority, which were due to take place in early 2010.

 

There is a widely held view among leaders of Israel’s security organizations, and in broad parts of the political spectrum, that the stalemate cannot be allowed to continue. Most importantly, there is a sense that Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas must not be allowed to fall, since the alternative could be chaos in the West Bank, or the rise to dominance of Hamas in that area. If reports of a deal between Israel and Hamas to release Gilad Shalit turn out to be true, or if Hamas and Fatah agree to new elections, the need to strengthen the moderate Palestinian camp will increase. The US Administration are also determined to move forward in negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians. 

 

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is aware that the emergence of a vacuum on the Israeli-Palestinian track does not work in Israel’s favour.  It is likely to mean the emergence of developments or outside initiatives over which Israel will not have control.  As a result, there is growing sense of the need for Netanyahu to take the initiative.   

 

Options available to the government of Israel

 

Netanyahu’s speech at Bar-Ilan University made clear his acceptance of the two state solution,[i] but at the same time there has been skepticism within the Israeli government about the peace process due to the disunity in the Palestinian camp, and the failure of the negotiations between the government of Ehud Olmert and the Palestinian Authority.  However, in the Israeli media in recent weeks, a number of reports have emerged suggesting that a growing desire from the Israeli Prime Minister to convey his seriousness about making progress.

 

A recent article by respected Haaretz correspondent Aluf Benn said that he himself was personally convinced after talking with Netanyahu of the prime minister’s determination to reach a solution with the Palestinians.[ii] He suggested that Netanyahu may be about to reveal a new initiative designed to re-launch the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.[iii] The article noted the reasons why Netanyahu desires renewed negotiations with the Palestinians. Netanyahu’s interest in narrowing the list of Israel’s enemies before an expected confrontation with Iran and Hezbollah was cited, along with Israel’s problematic international diplomatic situation following the issuing of the Goldstone Report. It is also clear that a renewed substantive move toward renewing Israeli-Palestinian negotiations would be welcomed by the Israeli public. Netanyahu’s also faces the threat that the Labour Party might split in the absence of a renewed diplomatic process, leaving him with only a narrow right-wing coalition. The prime minister is known to be determined to keep Labour leader Ehud Barak at the Defence Ministry. Netanyahu values Barak’s experience in this role, especially in the face of the Iranian threat.

 

Subsequent reports have sought to uncover details of a possible Israeli diplomatic initiative on the Palestinian track. An article by prominent journalist Ben Caspit in the Hebrew language daily Maariv last week revealed details of a peace plan which the article said was being promoted by President Shimon Peres and Defence Minister Ehud Barak.  According to the paper, the plan’s main proposal is for the establishment of a Palestinian state with provisional borders on around half of the territory of the West Bank.  In the second stage, the Palestinians would receive a guarantee from the US that the final status negotiations would be completed within 18 months to two years. Israel would receive a letter recognizing it as a Jewish state, thus implicitly rejecting the Palestinian demand for a ‘right of return’ of Arab refugees from 1948 and their descendants. The proposal resembles the plan for the Israeli-Palestinian track recently launched by senior Kadima MK and former Defence Minister Shaul Mofaz.

 

The prime minister’s office neither confirmed nor denied that the Barak-Peres plan existed. Instead, a statement was issued saying that a number of ideas and proposals were under discussion, but no decision had yet been made to adopt any of them.[iv] President Peres and Defence Minister Barak are understood to be making efforts to secure US support for the plan. Prime Minister Netanyahu is said to be ‘aware’ of their efforts. Awareness does not mean that the prime minister stands behind the Peres and Barak plan.  It is also not clear if this plan could command a majority in the ‘septet’ of ministers dealing with national security issues in the Cabinet. Nevertheless, the freedom of maneuver being afforded Peres and Barak in promoting their plan appears to confirm the desire of the prime minister to consider a new initiative on the Israeli-Palestinian track. 

 

Conclusion

 

Looming over all Netanyahu’s policy considerations is the Iranian strategic threat, which he considers to be the most important issue facing Israel. At the same time, there is a widespread view in Israeli politics and within the Israeli security establishment that the Israeli-Palestinian track must not be neglected. There is a perceived danger that to do so would be to increase the possibility that Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas will not run in next year’s Palestinian elections, to the benefit of Hamas. Netanyahu will also be considering the impact on Abbas of a deal to bring about the release of Gilad Shalit. Israel runs the risk of being blamed for hurting the cause of moderate Palestinians, playing into the hands of those who say Netanyahu is interested in conflict management rather than conflict resolution.

 

Effective action on the Iranian front is also connected to progress with the Palestinians.

The US Administration is determined to maintain as broad a regional and international coalition as possible. It believes progress in the peace process between Israel and its neighbors is a vital component in achieving this. The government of Israel, meanwhile, regards the strategic relationship with the United States to be of paramount importance.  Israel has always said that Iran is an international problem. As such she does not want to weaken the alliance built up on Iran through a negative perception of its actions regarding the Palestinian issue. The current intimations of potential movement by Israel on the Israeli-Palestinian track are linked to these considerations.

 

For all these reasons, there is a sense in Israel that a crossroads is being reached on the Palestinian track, and that the onus is on the Israeli prime minister to find a way to move forward.    

 

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[i] ‘Full text of Netanyahu’s foreign policy speech at Bar-Ilan,’ Haaretz, 14/6/09

[ii] Ibid. 

[iii] Aluf Benn, ‘Why Netanyahu really does want to advance peace,” Haaretz, 18/11/09

[iv] Ben Caspit, ‘Peres and Barak leading initiative for renewal of talks with PA,'(Hebrew)  Maariv, 19/11/09