The Financial Times reports that data on Iran’s crude oil exports bear the scars of US sanctions on the oil producer, with December figures showing a fall to just 1.1m barrels a day — almost 60 per cent down from levels in the spring. The threat of reimposing sanctions supported prices for most of the year, as traders anticipated the new measures could lead to a severe shortfall of supplies in the market. However, when ultimately introduced in November they ended up triggering crude’s fourth quarter sell-off. The reason, in part, was Washington’s decision to grant waivers to a number of Iran’s largest customers, leading many funds to close out positions that had been betting on the sanctions boosting prices as supplies fell short. But two months on, traders are starting to get a clearer view of the damage. December’s figure is broadly consistent with where a majority of oil market observers thought Iran’s exports would fall to before the waivers for Iran’s customers were announced.

The BBC, Times and Independent report on the Turkish and US Presidents’ agreement of a “safe zone” along Turkey’s border with Kurdish-held Syria. The Independent reports that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced his country had won US approval to establish a 30-kilometre “safe zone” in Syria along its border to keep groups it regards as terrorists away from its frontier, a plan that could put Turkey into armed conflict with America’s Kurdish partners. The BBC reports that President Erdogan responded positively to Donald Trump’s call for the “safe zone”. The leaders spoke by telephone after  Trump threatened to “devastate Turkey economically” if it attacked a Kurdish militia when US troops withdrew. Turkey regards the People’s Protection Units (YPG) as a terrorist group. On Tuesday, Erdogan told Turkish MPs he had agreed that a 32km (20-mile) deep safe zone “will be created by us”. There was no immediate response from US officials or the Kurdish authorities who control more than 400km of the Turkish-Syrian border. The Times reports that Erdogan said in his weekly address to the parliamentary group of his AK Party that the agreement was “of historical significance”. However, Riad Drar, head of the Syrian Democratic Council, the political wing of the US-backed coalition of mainly Kurdish fighters, told The Times that he believed Trump was referring to a neutral zone, rather than an area patrolled by Turkey. “The zone referred to in Trump’s tweet means that the Kurds are protected and cannot be attacked. Militants can leave it, but neither the Turks nor foreign fighters nor radical ones can enter it,” he said.

Anthony Loyd, writing in The Times, argues that “the latest rabbit-from-a-hat idea by President Erdogan and President Trump to stabilise northern Syria with a buffer zone after the US withdrawal from the area looks set to antagonise Kurdish insecurity rather than alleviate it”.

The Telegraph, Guardian and BBC report that, according to the UN, 15 displaced Syrian children – 13 of which are less than a year old – have died in recent weeks due to cold weather and inadequate medical care. The Telegraph reports that severe weather conditions in Syria have killed at least 15 displaced children seeking refuge, over half of whom were in a camp under US military control. The UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) said eight of them had died as a result of the cold in Rukban camp in southeastern Syria and seven others during the displacement from the jihadist bastion of Hajin, further north. The isolated desert camp is situated on Syria’s border with Jordan, which has denied those seeking refuge entry for fear that ISIS infiltrators may be hiding among civilians, and is close to the US’s base at al-Tanf. “Freezing temperatures and harsh living conditions in Rukban are increasingly putting children’s lives at risk,” Geert Cappelaere, UNICEF regional director, said. “In just one month, at least eight children – most of them under four months old and the youngest an one hour old – have died,” he said.

The Independent reports that Erik Prince, the founder of the private security company Blackwater, has suggested that private military contractors could replace US troops withdrawing from Syria. The former security firm chief said contractors could protect US allies and counter Iranian influence after the US leaves the country. “The United States doesn’t have a long-term strategic obligation to stay in Syria. But, I also think it’s not a good idea to abandon our allies,” he told Fox Business. Prince said using contractors would allow Trump to keep his campaign promise to end “forever wars,” and still leave behind some protection. But the former navy Seal suggested that the danger to the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces came from Syrian and Iranian forces, rather than Turkey. “American history is filled with public and private partnerships, of places that the private sector can fill those gaps, where a very expensive military probably shouldn’t be,” Prince said. “If there is not some kind of robust capability to defend from ground invasions from the very conventional power that the Iranians and the Syrians have, our allies will be smashed,” Prince said.

Reuters report that, according to diplomats, the UN Security Council is due to vote on Wednesday to approve the deployment of up to 75 observers to Yemen’s port city of Hodeidah for six months to monitor a ceasefire and redeployment of forces by the warring parties. The 15-member Security Council last month authorised an advance monitoring team led by retired Dutch General Patrick Cammaert and asked UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to recommended a larger operation. The council will vote on Wednesday on a British-drafted resolution that asks Guterres to “expeditiously” deploy his recommended larger operation, which will be known as the UN Mission to support the Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA). The draft resolution also “requests Member States, particularly neighbouring States, to support the United Nations as required for the implementation of UNMHA’s mandate.”

The Guardian reports that the head of the UN refugee agency has said he too would do “anything” to escape if he was stuck in a squalid refugee camp, as he called on the world’s wealthy nations to properly fund services in developing countries. Speaking to reporters after meeting Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, Filippo Grandi, the high commissioner for refugees, said countries are not getting enough recognition for hosting refugees, and that he would campaign for Cairo to receive more bilateral development aid to support its efforts. According to the latest figures, Egypt hosts more than 242,000 registered refugees of 58 different nationalities, mainly concentrated in Greater Cairo, Alexandria and the north coast, 55 per cent of them fleeing the war in Syria.

Reuters reports that US police have arrested an American-born journalist working for Iran’s English-language Press TV.  It said Marziyeh Hashemi was arrested at St. Louis Lambert International Airport on Sunday and was being held in custody in Washington DC. No formal charges had been made against her. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) officials were not immediately available for comment.

All the Israeli media report on the new IDF Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi. Amos Harel in Haaretz writes that Kochavi: “Will have to adjust quickly. In all his posts so far he has been considered revolutionary, a commander who specialises in dismantling and rebuilding. This time around, the job is considerable. Israel has halted Iran’s efforts to entrench itself in Syria, but that doesn’t mean the Revolutionary Guards have given up. Hezbollah might still try to set up weapons plants in Lebanon. Efforts at an agreement for the Gaza Strip have only yielded temporary results, and it’s doubtful that the shipments of Qatari cash and fuel into Gaza will ensure quiet vis-à-vis Hamas over the long term. It also appears that the era of Mahmoud Abbas’ presidency of the Palestinian Authority will end on Kochavi’s watch.”

Nahum Barnea in Yediot Ahronoth writes that Kochavi is: “An exceptional officer, and he possesses a combination of the daringness and decision-making capability of a fighter in the field, on the one hand, and the broad, strategic view of an academic scholar, on the other. In every post he held, he initiated change and carried it out. He is self-aware and witty. He is proactive.” Adding that like his predecessor, Kochavi has placed the conflict with Iran and its proxies at the top of the list of priorities. Yet Barnea warns that while the policy has been successful so far: “There is no guarantee that it will not devolve into war further along down the road. There is no guarantee that the incidents in Gaza won’t devolve into a full-scale campaign. In both cases, the Israeli home front would be targeted with a deluge of missiles. That isn’t going to be a walk in the park.”

In Maariv Yossi Melman argues that: “Kochavi is assuming his duties under more difficult circumstances than those that were faced by his predecessor, Gadi Eisenkot. When Eisenkot entered the chief of staff’s office [in January 2015] … Hamas had been dealt a blow in Operation Protective Edge and agreed to a cease-fire; Syria was mired in a civil war with no end in sight; the Iranians and Hezbollah were bleeding in that war that the Russians hadn’t yet entered; the West Bank was relatively calm; and Iran had agreed to hold negotiations to reduce its nuclear programme.”

In other news, Yediot Ahronoth reports that the police have presented the court with a prosecutor’s statement against the teenager suspected of throwing stones at a Palestinian car in the West Bank which led to the death of Aisha Rabi. Two weeks ago, the teenager was arrested and questioned by the General Security Service and the police. The State Attorney’s Office assesses that he will be charged with manslaughter.

Maariv report that Madonna could perform at Eurovision. According to the report, Madonna expressed her agreement to come to Israel, but negotiations are ongoing over financial terms. On Tuesday, the Tel Aviv municipality announced the creation of a “tent city” to help deal with the expected influx of visitors, as more than 10,000 international tourists are expected. The “tent city” will operate for a period of two months from May to June, the municipality said, as the city prepares for international events including Eurovision and the Tel Aviv Pride Parade.

Kan Radio reports that the Likud Central Committee last night approved a motion that was introduced by Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu to alter the composition of the Likud’s Knesset list. The new composition will increase the number of viable slots on the Likud’s Knesset list for people competing on the national list, at the expense of representatives from the different districts. Netanyahu will also be able to insert a chosen candidate in the 21^st slot on the Likud’s list.

Kan Radio reports that the IDF is investigating whether an individual crossed the border from Israel into Lebanon. The IDF Spokesperson said IDF soldiers saw a hole in the border fence, along with other signs that indicated someone had crossed the border into Lebanon. Lebanese media outlets reported that searches are underway for an individual who crossed the border from Israel into southern Lebanon. He was not armed. When he was asked to identify himself, he threw away his belongings and fled. Al-Mayadeen reported that an American passport was found in his wallet.

Haaretz and Times of Israel report that State Comptroller Yosef Shapira is being asked to reconsider Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s previously denied request for approval to receive money from businessmen to fund his legal bills in the three corruption cases against him.

Haaretz reports that Benny Gantz is in the process of creating his party list.