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Further details emerge over nascent Iran nuclear deal

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Talks between US Secretary of State John Kerry and Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammed Zarif concluded yesterday in Geneva with an outline apparently in place for a long-term deal on Iran’s nuclear development.

The meeting was aimed at enabling the P5+1 powers (US, UK, France, Russia, China and Germany) and Iran to meet a 31 March deadline for an outline to an agreement. Kerry commented yesterday that, “We made progress” while Zarif was quoted saying the two sides had found “a better understanding.” For the first time, US Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz and Iran’s nuclear chief Ali Akbar Salehi joined the talks, a further indication that technical details were discussed in earnest.

Widespread media reports indicate that the two sides have reached broad agreement on a phased plan, which would see strict controls on Iran’s uranium enrichment for 10 years, although restrictions could be eased during the final 5 years if Iran complies. According to AP, for those 10 years, Iran would be permitted to operate 6,500 centrifuges but remain at least a year from nuclear ‘breakout.’ There appears to be little contingency for regulating Iran’s atomic development once the 10-year period expires. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) would be responsible for monitoring Iranian compliance. A recent IAEA report said that Iran has not complied with its current commitment to transparency over its nuclear programme.

Israeli leaders responded to reports of the emerging deal with sharp criticism. Defence Minister Moshe Ya’alon said that such an agreement would pose “a great danger” to the Western world and “will allow Iran to become a nuclear threshold state.” Intelligence Minister Yuval Steinitz called the deal “totally unsatisfactory,” commenting that “for a 10-year delay [in Iran’s nuclear program] you are sacrificing the future of Israel and the US, and the future of the world.” Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to address US Congress on the issue next week, having repeatedly warned about the dangers of the nascent accord.