fbpx

News

Arab parties recommend Gantz for Prime Minister

[ssba]

What happened: Israel’s political parties began meeting with President Reuven Rivlin yesterday, making their recommendations for who they want to form the next government. In a move they termed ‘historic’, the Joint (Arab) List recommended Blue and White leader Benny Gantz – the first time since 1992 that Arab-Israeli political parties nominated a ‘Zionist’ candidate.

  • The Joint List, made up of four different parties, this morning issued a letter to the president stating that only 10 out of its 13 seats should be counted towards the Gantz nomination as the Balad party (3 seats) opposed the move.
  • Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu party, the likely swing vote in any future governing coalition (8 seats), refrained from nominating a candidate.
  • As a result, it is looking increasingly likely that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will have a one-seat advantage (55-54) over Benny Gantz in nominations – meaning he will likely be asked first by the President to form a government.

Context: This is only the first stage of the post-election government formation process. Recommendations to the president are not binding nor is there a promise from the prime ministerial candidate to actually include these parties in any future governing coalition.

  • Based on the numbers, neither Netanyahu nor Gantz have a clear path to a 61-seat parliamentary majority without the other. The major stumbling block remains Netanyahu’s role in any future government given his likely corruption indictment and linked to that, who would govern first in any premiership rotation arrangement.
  • Liberman reiterated yesterday that he would not serve in government with either the Arab-Israeli parties (who he termed ‘enemies’ of the state) nor the ultra-Orthodox parties (who he termed ‘political opponents’). Liberman stated again that the only option was a national unity government between Likud and Blue and White (and Yisrael Beitenu), and that it did not matter who would serve as prime minister first in any such arrangement.
  • Despite being the largest party, Blue and White is leaning towards relinquishing the first government formation opportunity to Netanyahu. While risky, the thinking is that Netanyahu has no realistic chance to get centre-left parties or even Liberman to join his 55-seat right-wing/ultra-Orthodox bloc. In the event of a Netanyahu failure, Gantz would be asked by the President to form a government.

Looking ahead: President Rivlin will conclude his consultations with the smaller political parties today, although no real surprises are expected. On Wednesday the Central Elections Committee will certify the official results. President Rivlin will then ask either Gantz or Netanyahu – by law the party leaders he deems to have the best chance of forming a government – to try and build a 61 seat majority Government.

  • This first leader will have 28 days from that moment to form a government, with the option of a 14-day extension. Upon his failure, the second leader will have 28 days, with no option for an extension.
  • In the meantime, Gantz was set to meet with Liberman today, while Likud has begun pushing for a Gantz-Netanyahu meeting. None of these meetings are expected to change the underlying dynamics of the process nor the continued public posturing by all sides.