Ely Karmon - 20/03/2008

Ely Karmon, (Jerusalem Post)

This Saturday will mark 40 days since Imad Mughniyeh's assassination on February 12 by a car bomb in Damascus. Hizbullah's TV and Web sites have derided Israel's worries ahead of a possible major terrorist attack which "keep Israeli political, military, and security officials up at night."

Israel has enhanced security at its embassies and put its military on heightened alert. In light of their past behavior, Hizbullah and Iranian threats must be taken very seriously.

They have three main options: an attack on northern Israel from South Lebanon, a major terrorist attack inside Israel or a major act of terror against Israeli or Jewish targets abroad.

Hizbullah has rearmed itself with a huge amount of long-range missiles and still has a large clandestine infrastructure in southern Lebanon. Yet the presence of the UNIFIL forces on the ground, the sharp criticism of the organization in the United Nations' latest report on Resolution 1701 and the unsolved Lebanese internal situation could endanger the group's long-range political goals and standing.

Moreover, Iran is probably not interested in a new conflagration at a time when its nuclear project has a good chance of surviving the latest international sanctions.

In case of an attack against Israeli or Jewish targets abroad, based on the example of the two attacks in Buenos Aires, it would be clear to everybody that this is a Hizbullah or Iran/Hizbullah operation and the political price could be very high.

The easiest way for retaliation would be a "mega-attack" inside Israel or the assassination of a high-level personality by a Palestinian proxy.

Not only would it be more difficult to accuse Hizbullah of such an attack, but this could have a very negative impact on the negotiating process with the Palestinian Authority and would possibly provoke a major IDF operation in Gaza if it appeared that the attack was prepared there. The last attack against the Mercaz Harav Yeshiva could be an example, if it is not already the beginning of the retaliation.

Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah, speaking in Beirut at a ceremony in February to mark "Resistance Week," said that Hizbullah is today in "the stage of martyr Imad Mughniyeh's blood."

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