Gershon Baskin- 12/02/2008

Gershon Baskin, (Jerusalem Post)

"There is a very curious news black-out both in Israel and in Palestine regarding what President Bush read in the Olmert-Abbas joint statement in Annapolis: "We agree to engage in vigorous, ongoing and continuous negotiations and shall make every effort to conclude an agreement before the end of 2008."

Are those negotiations taking place? We don't really know. Not only the politicians aren't talking, most of the media is not reporting, the international community is silent and I have even heard that Tony Blair has instructed members of his staff to keep quiet.

Every so often, there is a statement, usually from the Palestinian side that no progress has been made. The latest statement came form PA Prime Minister Salam Fayyad. Sometimes some of the politicians on the Left in Israel also state that nothing is happening on the peace front. Sometimes we hear rumors of exactly the opposite - for instance this newspaper's headline on Monday: "Coalition crisis looms after Post reveals secret Jerusalem talks."

A FEW weeks ago several Israeli news analysts reported that Prime Minister Olmert and Abu Mazen have made considerable progress toward a framework agreement. We even hear statements from time-to-time that the end of 2008 deadline is possible to reach, while others insist that it is impossible. We really have no idea which assessment is accurate.

If there is real progress, in the end it will serve the interests of both sides. Meanwhile there are considerable challenges on the ground that threaten the possibility of real progress in the negotiations.

The continued rocket fire from Gaza and the horrific situation in places like Sderot make it almost impossible for the Israeli government not to decide on a major ground operation into Gaza. Other than recognizing the limits of force to completely stop the Qassam rocket fire, Prime Minister Olmert is also very aware that such an operation may make it impossible for President Abbas to continue the negotiations with Israel. But the continued rocket fire may make it equally impossible for Olmert to continue as well.

There are many other contradictions in the needs of both sides that weigh heavily on the possibility of progress in the negotiations. It seems that the security cooperation and coordination between Israel and the PA is progressing positively and the PA security forces, with US assistance, are making considerable progress in reorganizing itself and in actually fighting against terrorism.

The progress, however; is too slow and the threat of a new wave of suicide bombings remains too high for Israel to completely trust the abilities of the PA to prevent them. The bombing in Dimona is only the latest example of the difficulty of Israel in leaving the work of security to the PA alone. Olmert is quite aware that continued Israeli military incursions into areas where the PA troops are working, significantly diminish the ability of Abbas and Fayyad to rein in the dissidents and fugitives, even from the ranks of Fatah. Nonetheless, the Israeli security assessment remains that without continued IDF and Shin Bet actions throughout the West Bank, the chances of "successful" terrorism attacks inside of Israel remain too high to gamble on."

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