15/10/2007
"While the Israeli and Palestinian negotiating teams are hard at work formulating a joint declaration ahead of the Annapolis peace conference at the end of November, developments along the border between the Gaza Strip and Egypt are casting a heavy pall over its chances of success. Since Hamas completed its takeover of Gaza in June, weapons smuggling from Sinai has mushroomed. Israel last week asked the American administration to speak urgently to Egypt about this matter, to make it clear that the smuggling has become a strategic problem.
More than two years after the disengagement, despite Egyptian promises, Cairo has made no significant effort to thwart the smuggling. According to Israeli intelligence officials, every recent month has seen tons of explosives smuggled into Gaza to manufacture bombs and rockets. Would-be terrorists, trained in camps in Iran, Syria and Lebanon, are also slipping across the border.
About two weeks ago, very likely with Egyptian permission, dozens of trained gunmen returned to the Gaza Strip. The operational knowledge of Hezbollah activists and Iran's Revolutionary Guards has already helped Hamas and Islamic Jihad to attack Negev communities. Until Hamas took over in June, there was at least a semblance of monitoring along the Philadelphi Route by security forces under the aegis of Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas and the team of European monitors stationed at the Rafah crossing. Now, senior Israel Defense Force officers call what is happening along the border "a smuggling highway."
The senior political and security echelons, still bruised after hastily setting off to the Second Lebanon War, are not keen on a large-scale military operation in Gaza. Tension with Syria last summer was the main brake on such a move. However, the outgoing deputy chief of staff, Major General Moshe Kaplinsky, told Yedioth Ahronoth Friday he believed the conflict in Gaza was on the verge of escalation. Israel is concerned about two expected developments being accelerated by the smuggling: extending the range of Hamas' rockets to more than 15 kilometers and the upgrading of its manufacturing capacity, allowing Hamas to hoard thousands of rockets. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert will find it difficult to convince the public of the need for another withdrawal under continuing fire from Gaza.
Egypt could seal the border to smuggling if it would only decide to do so. Cairo seems to be turning a blind eye. This behavior raises the suspicion it does not really want talks between Israel and Abbas to succeed or PA rule strengthened.
Weapons smugglers in Gaza are working closely with smugglers on the Egyptian side of Rafah and with Sinai Bedouin. Egypt will contribute to the peace talks if it uses its intelligence services to gather information on these networks and its police force to monitor the border more closely. Israel must present these demands in every possible forum and make clear how essential the struggle against smuggling is to check the conflict in the strip."