Haaretz-17/09/2007

TBC, (Haaretz)

"U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's visit to Israel and the Palestinian Authority tomorrow will give an important boost to the talks between Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas. Beyond the symbolic importance of emphasizing American leadership in the peace process prior to the international summit scheduled for Washington in November, Rice's visit is expected to advance the wording of a joint declaration to be released at the summit and, as always, push Israel into making more "relief" gestures toward the Palestinians.

But no less importantly, Rice must encourage the premier not to diverge from the path he has taken in the past few weeks. Olmert's declarations and deeds indicate that he is interested in promoting a political arrangement with the "partner" Abbas, but is concerned about the internal political price attached to measures that are considered concessions to the Palestinians. Olmert prefers that the Washington summit end in a joint declaration that he will submit only for cabinet approval, and not in a signed agreement that he will have to submit to a Knesset vote. This is how he will try to avoid a coalition crisis and the need to rely on Meretz and Arab lawmakers to get Knesset approval - at the price of weakening Israel's commitment to the continuation of the process.

There are some impediments also concerning implementation of confidence-building steps for the Palestinians, which are aimed at sustaining the peace process on the way to a settlement and strengthening Abbas internally. Tomorrow Defense Minister Ehud Barak will finally present a military plan to improve Palestinian freedom of movement in the West Bank. The drafting of the plan has already dragged out for three months, during which there has been no actual improvement; the delay indicates the defense establishment's reservations about removing roadblocks and checkpoints between Palestinian cities and villages. There also has been a delay in Olmert's promise to release Palestinian prisoners for Ramadan, a promise that already encountered opposition from Shas and Yisrael Beiteinu cabinet members.

Olmert is more seasoned than his predecessors at coalition politics and is correct in his assessment that political support is an essential condition for any peace process and agreement. The challenges he faces are not simple: Yisrael Beiteinu is under pressure from the right to leave the government, and has already presented lines in the sand - the background to a possible exit. Shas will face similar pressure, particularly if Avigdor Lieberman indeed resigns. The Labor Party - the apparent leader of the peace camp - is headed by Ehud Barak, who is not enthusiastic about the Olmert-Abbas talks and has reservations about a further withdrawal from the West Bank before there is an adequate response to the Qassams. These problems complicate Olmert's work, but they must not divert him from his political path.

Olmert's leadership will be judged on his success in advancing the two-state solution, and ending the prolonged occupation of the territories - not on his success in staying in office a few months longer. His political experience should support the creation of a political agreement, and not be an obstacle to it."

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