Haaretz-18/09/2007

TBC, (Haaretz)

"Military Intelligence Chief Amos Yadlin's statement that Israel has restored its deterrence capabilities was premature. Deterrence is a fine and encouraging word, but it is difficult to measure. It is much easier to detect and measure complacency and self-satisfaction.

If the alleged air strike did occur, if it did disrupt the Iranian-Syrian-North Korean cooperation on nuclear arms proliferation, then it can be regarded as an encouraging sign. That is, if the decision to strike took into account the potential risks involved, and if the raid was planned with more care than what we have seen in the Second Lebanon War.

Israel cannot remain indifferent to nuclear cooperation at any level between North Korea - which is pretending to be friendlier to the environment than before - and Syria, which is speaking of peace while supporting every form of terrorism in Lebanon, Iraq and Israel. Especially not when this is done under the auspices of Iran, which is pledging to rush to Syria's defense.

A successful strike - if it did occur - could serve as a statement: Anyone who places nuclear weapons near Israel's borders or within striking distance will have to pay a price. But even if such a strike indeed occurred at the right time and with the right intention, one would err to speak of a restored Israeli deterrence.

The Military Intelligence chief made his statement on Sunday to the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, at a time when the Winograd Committee was in the process of forming its conclusions on a historic failure - the Second Lebanon War. Israel has had severe omissions in a conflict with a relatively small guerrilla organization. Yadlin was a part of that omission.

Israel's deterrence is measured day in and day out in the western Negev, as well. Hundreds of Qassam rockets from Gaza strike the region every month, with Israel unable to come up with a deterrent response. The vulnerability of the Israeli home front cannot easily be forgotten either. Neither can the threat of the suicide bombers, who find nothing deterring.

Deterrence is not an exact science. It ultimately determines whether a well-armed enemy will opt to employ his arsenal or not. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's government had until recently spoken of the Second Lebanon War as a conflict that served to bolster Israel's deterrence. But 12 months later, the MI chief speaks of having restored the damage Israel's deterrence had sustained in the war.

Many factors make up deterrence, stemming from global and local interests of regional countries. They are not necessarily derived from the military capabilities of Israel, which has always been better armed than its neighbors. The ability to sustain damage constitutes one of the components of deterrence - but Syria and Iran may be able to sustain more damage.

Excessive self-satisfaction has led Israel's past governments to numerous failures. It has made the nation's leadership think time is working in our favor. It has persuaded our leaders to miss out on opportunities, to wantonly set up settlements in areas which were supposed to serve as bargaining chips. It compelled Jerusalem to postpone giving back the West Bank to Jordan's King Hussein when he still wanted it back.

Every time Israel relishes in its military might, we must remind ourselves of its limits and its limitations. Let us hope that Yadlin's words were taken out of full context, and that if a successful action was indeed carried out in Syria, it would not make anyone think that the weakness Israel had demonstrated in the days of the Second Lebanon War has been erased."

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