Independent-02/05/2007

TBC, (Independent)

"The interim report deals only with the background to the war and the first five days of conflict, but it leaves Mr Olmert greatly weakened. It also plunges Israeli politics into a new state of flux at a time when the security situation around its borders seems especially unstable. It is not at all clear that Mr Olmert can survive in his job, despite his determination to do so at least until the final report appears. Acknowledging the mistakes made, he insists that he wants to take responsibility for correcting them and that he is the best person to do so.

He appears to believe, and he may not be entirely wrong, that his resignation would create as many problems as it would solve. It is possible that an internal coup in his Kadima party would keep the coalition intact; some are tipping the foreign minister, Tzipi Livni, who emerged relatively unscathed from the report, to take over. But it is equally possible that the party - a creature of the former Prime Minister, Ariel Sharon - would implode, or that the Knesset could pass a vote of no confidence in the government. Israel would then be faced with the prospect of new elections that could well bring a more hawkish government to power.

The rest of this week will be crucial. If Mr Olmert can survive the demonstrations planned for tomorrow to demand his resignation, he may be able to survive until the summer. But he will be a severely weakened leader, and it will be a weakened country he will lead.

In the meantime, there are several aspects of this report that are relevant beyond Israel's borders. The Winograd commission was appointed by the Olmert government, amid suspicions that it would pull its punches. That did not happen. Its interim report is wide-ranging, hits hard and spares no one. It holds the man at the top to account for decisions taken on his watch. And it cites the folly of a war undertaken by a Prime Minister without military experience who fails to solicit adequate advice, fails to check the army's state of preparedness and lacks knowledge of the country in question."

Times (2/5): "In almost any other democracy the pressure would be intolerable. Ehud Olmert, the Israeli Prime Minister, has been accused by a scathing government report of a "serious failure in exercising judgment, responsibility and prudence" during the war last year against Lebanon. His popularity rating in one poll is a derisory 2 per cent, and another found that 69 per cent of Israeli voters want him to quit. A senior Labour minister in the Kadima-led coalition Government has resigned and called on Mr Olmert to do so also. The interim report, published on Monday, accused him of taking the country to war hastily, rashly and "with no comprehensive plan" and the Prime Minister has publicly acknowledged these failings. Yet he insisted that it would be "incorrect" for him to resign and said he had a duty to remain in office to implement the lessons of the report. He could yet weather the storm.

Mr Olmert heads a stable coalition of Kadima and Labour, holding 78 of the 120 seats in the Knesset. The economy is strong, and the public have hitherto been reluctant to demonstrate en masse, despite widespread anger at the failure of the war in Lebanon to achieve either of its two aims: the destruction of Hezbollah bases and the release of two kidnapped Israeli soldiers. Members of the Government are reluctant to call for fresh elections, as polls indicate that they would be defeated by Likud, the right-wing Opposition headed by Binyamin Netanyahu.

Despite the failure of the 34-day conflict to achieve Israel's objectives, most Israelis supported the action when it began. Even critics of its military and political leadership believe that Israel was obliged to respond vigorously to the provocations and rocket attacks launched from Lebanon by Hezbollah. Labour, especially, is in no position to blame Mr Olmert: its own leader, Amir Peretz, holds the position of Defence Minister, and was seen as particularly responsible for the failures in intelligence, coordination and military leadership. Polls have found that 74 per cent of voters now think that he should resign.

Nevertheless, the protests are clearly taking a toll on Mr Olmert. He appeared pale and tired at public engagements yesterday, and was clearly shaken by the tone, as well as the content, of the report. He cannot take the support of his party for granted, and may find a hostile reception at the mass rally planned for tomorrow in Tel Aviv. If there are continuing demonstrations, Kadima may force him out of office and replace him with the Foreign Minister, Tzipi Livni, who has also reportedly called for his resignation.

The Lebanon war report has underlined two things. The first is the overreliance of successive Israeli governments on guidance from the military. Given the country's precarious security, the military's early record of success and the central role of the army in unifying all citizens, this is understandable. But it does not always serve an elected government well. The second point is the contrast between the clear and transparent attempts by Israelis to learn the lessons of the war and the failure of their adversaries to do so. Hezbollah is still trying to destabilise the Government in Lebanon. Syria and Iran are rearming and galvanising the militants, in defiance of the United Nations. The war may be over, but tensions are rising again. Israel needs leadership and political stability to face the new challenges."

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