Jerusalem Post-14/05/2007

TBC, (Jerusalem Post)

"Judging from the headlines, Vice President Dick Cheney did some serious saber-rattling against Iran during his swing through the region last week. On closer examination, it all came down to one short sentence in his speech to soldiers on the aircraft carrier USS John C. Stennis, stationed in the Persian Gulf.

"We'll stand with others to prevent Iran from gaining nuclear weapons and dominating this region," Cheney said."

"What this analysis mistakenly assumes is that "coercion" has been tried and failed. In fact, the strategy of making Iran's nuclear program more trouble than it's worth has only been feebly embarked upon, and the attempts to engage Iran now would seem to detract from the chances of achieving this goal through non-military means.

In principle, there is nothing wrong with a second track indicating that the door is open if Iran were to decide that it was abandoning terrorism and aggression, nuclear-backed and otherwise. The problem is that this second track has no chance of bearing fruit unless the first track, the "or else" side of the equation, is greatly ratcheted up.

According to a new Website tracking trade with and investment in Iran, global investment in Iran rose from about $5 billion in mid-2006 to over $45 billion in the first few months of this year. Most of this sharp increase in investments came from Europe and bout 70 percent of the investments in Iran have been made in the oil sector, the main source of cash for the regime.

In this context, it is not surprising that Iran does not take the West's sanctions too seriously, certainly not seriously enough to abandon its nuclear program. For Western policy to work, Iran must understand two things: both that sanctions will be drastically tightened and that there is a meaningful threat of military action if sanctions are not effective. Cheney's speech notwithstanding, military threats are unlikely to be credible unless the sanctions piece is being seriously pursued not just by the US, but by Europe as well."

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