Jerusalem Post-20/06/2007

TBC, (Jerusalem Post)

"This situation, The New York Times reports, seems to have finally sparked a debate within the Bush administration over Iran policy. At a meeting to discuss where the Western sanctions campaign was going, a key architect, Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns, let the cat out of the bag: "Negotiations with Teheran could still be going on when Mr. Bush leaves office in January 2009," according to the Times's characterization.

The same report notes that IAEA predicts that Iran could have 8,000 centrifuges enriching uranium by the end of the year. This is enough to produce about five nuclear weapons a year. Accordingly, Burns's admission is a delicate way of saying that Iran will get the bomb.

The US, it seems, has not abandoned an incremental approach that has little to no chance of success. Rather than asking what sanctions could be sufficient to stop Iran and pursuing them, the policy seems to be seeking the most that will fly, regardless of whether it has a chance of working or not."

"The question, then, is not whether Iran can be stopped, but whether it will, and by which means. The refusal to take serious non-military measures is leaving a choice between the much more dangerous and unpalatable options of taking military action now, or standing by as the jihadists - from Gaza to Lebanon, to Iraq - gain a nuclear umbrella."

"If Europe imposed the trade, investment and diplomatic sanctions that the US has already imposed, along with global UN-backed financial and diplomatic sanctions, it is likely that Iran could be forced to change course without firing a shot.

The question, then, is not whether Iran can be stopped, but whether it will, and by which means. The refusal to take serious non-military measures is leaving a choice between the much more dangerous and unpalatable options of taking military action now, or standing by as the jihadists - from Gaza to Lebanon, to Iraq - gain a nuclear umbrella.

There is much that Bush and Olmert can say and do to address the symptoms of the rising jihadi axis, such as Hizbullah's rearming in Lebanon, Hamas's rearming via Egypt and the terrorist challenge to Iraq's nascent democracy. In the end, however, these are all battles with Iranian proxy forces, and cannot be fully addressed except at the source."

 

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