Prime Minister Tony Blair-23/07/2007

TBC, (Jerusalem Post)

"Whether or not the latest reports of a billion-dollar arms deal cut during Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's visit to Damascus are correct, Syria has been on an arms buying spree. In the past year, while alternatively engaging in peace rhetoric and saber-rattling, the Syrian regime has reportedly bought a billion dollars of sophisticated missiles and aircraft.

Perhaps it is the hefty price tag of these weapons that prompted Syrian President Bashar Assad to say to his parliament last week that "The Israelis should remember that the price of peace is lower than the cost of war."

We do not need Assad to tell us the price of war, a price we have been paying since the reestablishment of the Jewish state almost 60 years ago. Nor do we need the endless speculation about a war with Syria that so many seem to expect will occur this coming summer, as if wars are scheduled like vacations or election campaigns.

Wars are indeed sometimes affected by miscalculations and misinformation. In 1967, for example, King Hussein of Jordan was convinced to attack Israel by false Egyptian reports that Egypt was defeating Israel, when the truth was that the Egyptian air force had been destroyed on the ground in the first hours of the Six Day War.

But the underlying causes of war are not hidden; they are the result of aggressive designs of dictatorial regimes. Such regimes decide to attack when they deem it in their interest to do so. It is the task, therefore, of Israel and the international community to ensure that such an attack would not be in the interest of Assad's regime.

One aspect of this is to make it clear to Assad, as Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has done, that Israel stands ready to engage in direct, unconditional peace negotiations with Syria any time, anywhere. We are under no illusions that Assad is interested in such negotiations, much less concluding a peace treaty. But the offer must be, and clearly is, on the table.

Peace offers, however, cannot be relied upon to prevent war because Syria is not interested in peace. On the contrary, Syria fights peace with Israel with all its might, including through forces most opposed to peace with Israel, such as Hamas and Hizbullah. Like other Arab dictatorships, Syria has depended on enmity with Israel to distract from its own failed rule, and there is no reason to believe that its calculations have changed."

 

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