Ze'ev Schiff-01/06/2007

Ze'ev Schiff, (Haaretz)

"President George W. Bush has announced on three recent occasions that the U.S. will defend Israel in case of an attack against it. Vice President Richard Cheney added a similar statement, as did Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. Clearly, this is not by chance or accident. Many countries would be eager to hear such statements about themselves. The question facing Israel is what is Jerusalem doing now to fill those promises with content.

Hopefully, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Defense Minister Amir Peretz will begin discussing what Israel should ask for from Washington. It's doubtful that any comprehensive discussion has taken place with experts. Such a discussion is a departure from the realm of experts to the world of newspaper headlines and diplomatic gimmicks."

"Bush's statements will certainly spark anew the old debate as to whether Israel should make do with presidential statements about its defense and how to protect its independence, which usually does not exist when defense treaties are signed between countries. And maybe a new element, which did not exist in previous debates, should be added, because this time it's in reference to a defense agreement against a nuclear threat. For now, it is the threat from Iran and in the future, it could be a threat from other Muslim states. That element is decisive. Meanwhile, headlines about presidential promises to defend Israel in the case of an attack should not suffice. Israel must strive to reach an agreement with Washington about how to increase its deterrent capabilities, including against long-range threats. Iran is threatening Israel from the distance, but managed to build a short- and medium-range threat against it as well.

Just this week, Israel received a reminder from Hezbollah: rockets fired at an important air force warning facility on the border. At the same time, there was a report that Iran provided Hezbollah with rockets that have ranges as far as 200 kilometers, apparently under the supervision and operational control of Iran.

The rocket array that Hezbollah built in south Lebanon with the help of Iran and Syria is a threat and action must be taken to be rid of it. That can be done through diplomatic measures and pressure and not only through military means. An example of a successful diplomatic move in Lebanon is the removal of the Syrian army from Lebanon after being deployed there since 1976. Israel must prepare for a situation in which Iranian provocations increase. Those who want to strengthen Israel's deterrent capacity, and its offensive capabilities in case it is attacked, must consider this from several military angles."

From the defence aspect there are also ways to strengthen Israel. The country wants to step up its ability to develop unmanned long range weapons systems and is weighing additions to its Arrow anti-missile defence system. The country is also examining its ability to defend itself from the kinds of rockets used by the terror organisations and Hezbollah. Israel must receive aid in all of these realms, because if it does not, all it will have is pretty headlines."

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