BICOM

What happened: A Benny Gantz led minority government looked increasingly unlikely last night as Gesher leader Orly Levy-Abuksis announced she would not join a minority Government requiring the support of the Joint (Arab) List. Gesher merged with the left-wing Labour and Meretz parties on one electoral list ahead of last week’s general election. But in a Facebook post Levy-Abuksis added that she was no longer bound by her partnership with Meretz.

• Labour parliamentarians, including party leader Amir Peretz, were reportedly blindsided by Levy-Abuksis’ reversal. She had stated publicly before election day that: “I have no objection to [Joint List] support on the outside,” that is their parliamentary votes supporting a Gantz led governing coalition without actually formally joining it.
• Speculation is rife that Levy-Abuksis will not only oppose a Gantz led minority government but also officially defect to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud. She is thought to have been promised a ministerial post in a future Netanyahu government or, in the event of a fourth election, a high position on the Likud party list.
• Anger among the Israeli Left towards Levy-Abuksis was palpable, with many describing her as a “thief” and “traitor” – using left-wing votes overwhelmingly opposed to Netanyahu and in favour of Jewish-Arab cooperation to secure a seat in the Knesset before flipping to the opposite side.
• The daughter of former Likud foreign minister David Levy, Orly Levy-Abuksis began her political career in the right wing Yisrael Beitenu party. She then established Gesher as a stand-alone party but failed to get enough votes to pass the 3.25 per cent electoral threshold to win any seats in the April 2019 election. Prior to the September 2019 election she joined up with Labour and then before the March election formed part of the Labour-Gesher-Meretz alliance.

 

Context: The parliamentary math in favour of a Gantz minority government now hangs by a thread after Levy-Abuksis’ announcement. Two Blue and White backbenchers – Yoaz Hendel and Zvi Hauser – also indicated their opposition to any government dependent on Arab-Israeli support.

• The “anti-Netanyahu” bloc had originally numbered 62 seats (versus 58 in favour of Netanyahu). Absent the above three parliamentarians this majority falls to 59, but only if they abstain and do not actively vote against forming a Gantz minority government.
• A major sticking point is the reliance on three votes from the controversial Balad faction that makes up part of the Joint (Arab) List.
• Prior to the Levy-Abuksis announcement the chances of a Gantz minority government had looked realistic, if not promising. A picture was released in the evening showing Gantz and the three other leaders of Blue and White (Yair Lapid, Moshe Yaalon and Gabi Ashkenazi) meeting with Yisrael Beitenu leader Avigdor Lieberman. Blue and White said: “The meeting was good and substantive, with the goal of forming a government and preventing fourth elections.”
• It is unclear now what Liberman will do and whether he will continue to tacitly support the option – however remote now – of a minority government with outside Joint List support.

 

Looking ahead: Some Blue and White officials have not relented on the minority government option, although the first order of business will be to receive the mandate to form a government from President Reuven Rivlin next week.

• Blue and White insist that they still have the votes to be given the first option to form a government – and with that to pass a law preventing any indicted Knesset member from becoming prime minister beginning in the next Knesset (i.e. after a fourth election).
• Relatedly, the Jerusalem District Court yesterday rejected Benjamin Netanyahu’s request to delay the start of his corruption trial, which is set to go ahead as planned on 17 March.