BICOM

The Israel Defence Force (IDF) has warned there is a high risk that Hamas will start a war with Israel in an attempt to elicit international sympathy and an influx of international aid money to the Gaza Strip.

In its Military Intelligence assessment, published yesterday, the IDF believes that the scope of the Hamas attack will be limited, should it materialise, but would still be liable to lead to a round of escalated violence in the Gaza Strip. It put the threat of attack down to several factors, including: difficulties that Hamas has faced in ruling Gaza; tensions with the civilian population that stem from the dire economic situation; and the more radical stance recently adopted by Hamas’s rival, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

According to the intelligence assessment, while the Israeli military sees the northern arena — Lebanon and the Iranian entrenchment in Syria — as the more serious challenge facing Israel, the more immediate threat come from the Gaza Strip. In light of this, the Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi has prioritised the IDF’s readiness for any development in Gaza.

The IDF Intelligence Branch also believes there is a high chance of an escalation in violence in the West Bank, where Hamas has been taking action to expand the area under its influence. However, the report states that there are enough factors that can preserve stability in the area, including the security interests of the Palestinian Authority (PA).

The intelligence assessment states that Israel’s core challenges are Iran and the threats from the north, including the potential erosion of the 2015 JCPOA nuclear agreement, Iranian entrenchment in Syria and Iraq, and the precision-guided missile projects in Syria and Lebanon, which are likely to become a major dilemma for Israel.

The assessment notes that Israel’s campaign of airstrikes in Syria has driven Iran to change tack in the country, moving the bulk of its troops and bases away from the Israeli border and toward what it sees as a safer location closer to Iraq. Iranian activity in Iraq is likely to increase Israel’s actions in the area. According to foreign reports, Israel has already taken action in that area in recent months.

While Iran’s focus may be shifting away from southern Syria, it is not abandoning the territory entirely, and continues to develop military capabilities, particularly relating to missile attacks on Israel. On Tuesday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed that the IDF had carried out a tank strike on an Iranian-affiliated position in the Quneitra region on the Syrian Golan.