BICOM

What happened: Former National Security Advisor John Bolton was sacked by US President Donald Trump after, among other things, a forceful disagreement regarding easing sanctions on Iran.

• According to a report in Bloomberg, during a meeting at the White House on Monday, President Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin voiced support for easing Iranian sanctions as a way to secure a meeting with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani at the UN General Assembly later this month. But Bolton strongly disagreed with the idea.
• On Wednesday, Trump criticised Bolton for his positions on a range of foreign policy issues, stretching back to his role advocating the 2003 Iraq invasion. “He made some very big mistakes. John is known as a tough guy. He’s so tough, he got us into Iraq.”
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responded to reports that Bolton’s departure was a blow to Israel, telling Israel’s Channel 20 News: “Look, the one who formally crafted the American policy was Pompeo … and President Trump of course. But I’m not getting into the personality changes in this administration.”

The context: Bolton’s departure from the White House is widely seen as clearing the way for a more conciliatory foreign policy in the run-up to next year’s elections, as President Trump seeks to launch his campaign with some foreign policy achievements.

• Over the past few weeks, President Trump has signalled his willingness to meet with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani – a move that would break more than four decades of US policy. However, Rouhani reportedly told French President Emmanuel Macron that: “From the point of view of the Iranian government, parliament and people, negotiating with the US under sanctions is pointless.”
• Reports also suggest that Trump is considering the French proposal of a $15bn credit line in exchange for a commitment by Iran to walk back from the steps it has taken in violation of the JCPOA nuclear agreement, avoid provocations in the Gulf and start talks over a broader, more comprehensive nuclear agreement.
• Bolton’s appointment last year was seen as a positive move in Israel. He worked closely with Israel’s Ambassador to the US, Ron Dermer, and Benjamin Netanyahu on the US’s “maximum pressure” campaign against the regime in Tehran.

Looking ahead: Mike Pompeo is reportedly being lined up to become national security advisor as well as US Secretary of State although there are also a number of people also being considered to replace Bolton. Pompeo would be the first to hold both positions since Henry Kissinger in 1973. The current assessment in Israel, as reported by Haaretz security correspondent Amos Harel, is that a meeting between Trump and Rohani is a question of when, not if. For Prime Minister Netanyahu, the talk of a potential US-Iran meeting is a serious blow to his re-election campaign that has emphasised the threat from Iran and played up his close ties with President Trump.