BICOM

What happened: The so-called Islamic State (ISIS) confirmed yesterday in an audio recording that its leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, was killed in a US special forces operation in northern Syria last weekend. The group named a previously unknown figure, Abu Ibrahim al-Hashemi al-Qurayshi (thought to be a nom de guerre), as the new “emir” of the ISIS caliphate.

• The seven-minute audio recording also confirmed that the group’s spokesman, Abu Hassan al-Muhajir, was killed the day after al-Baghdadi in a US airstrike in another part of northern Syria. Al-Muhajir was widely viewed as the most likely successor to al-Baghdadi.
• The recording warned the US of future attacks and said it continued to expand into Europe and Central Africa, adding: “Do not be happy America for the death of…al-Baghdadi, and do not forget the cups of deaths at his hands.”
• In separate news, the US military’s Central Command started moving additional forces and armoured vehicles into northern Syria – specifically Deir Ezzor, to protect oil fields the Trump administration has said are a priority.

Context: The killing of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and his heir apparent were a clear blow to ISIS, yet analysts warned that the group still poses a threat to Western interests.

• The fact that the group’s leadership council so quickly and seamlessly named a new successor reinforced the view that it had planned for such an eventuality.
• Despite losing most of its territorial foothold over the past two years, ISIS cells are still known to be active in parts of northwestern Iraq and northern Syria, in addition to “franchises” in other parts of the region, Asia, Africa and potential radicalised “lone wolves” in the West.
• The announced US military reinforcements – at this point just a few dozen infantry soldiers and less than ten Bradley armoured vehicles – are an indication that holding a small sliver of land in northeastern Syria is still deemed a priority, despite President Donald Trump’s intention to withdraw all US forces from the country.
• It remains unclear how many additional US troops will be moved into Deir Ezzor and for how long they will remain there. Trump has made “securing the oil” a centrepiece of his new strategy going forward.

Looking ahead: ISIS is clearly on its heels and has suffered major territorial and organisational losses. Yet the warning issued in yesterday’s audio recording could be realised via future terrorist attacks, including in the West. The Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS has frayed due to the recent changes in US policy. General Kenneth McKenzie, head of US Central Command, stressed that the new troop deployments were meant to deny ISIS the ability to “regain possession of any of the oil fields that would allow them to gain income going forward…We’ll await further decisions by the US government about how that plan is going to look in the long term.”