BICOM

What happened: The target of two Israeli copter-like drones alleged by Hezbollah to have hit sites inside the Dahiyeh neighborhood of Beirut early on Sunday morning were high-end machinery used for the production of precision guided missiles, according to reports in both the Times and multiple Israeli media outlets.

• The specific targets were an “industrial planetary mixer,” eight tons in size, used for the production of solid fuel propellant for precision guided missiles, as well as an electronic control system for the machine held in a separate crate.
• The planetary mixer, thought to be both rare and expensive, was recently flown in to Beirut from Iran and held temporarily at the site in the Dahiyeh neighborhood before a planned move to a precision missile manufacturing plant.
• Manufacturing solid fuel for such missiles would, according to reports, have improved engine performance and by extension the maneuverability and accuracy of the missiles. According to Israeli media, the loss of the mixer and control panel will set back the Iranian precision guided missile program by one year.

Context: Israeli officials view Iran’s precision guided missile project as a major strategic threat. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu first raised the issue in a UN speech last September. BICOM produced a detailed report in February setting out the intended production process for precision guided missiles in Lebanon and Israel’s strategic dilemma of when to take concrete military steps to limit the production process.

• Unlike regular “dumb”/unguided rockets – of which Hezbollah in Lebanon has more than 100,000 – precision missiles are highly accurate and can hit within meters of an intended target.
• Iran has been attempting to move sophisticated GPS kits and other components for the retrofit of existing missiles into Syria and Lebanon. The process is relatively quick and cheap and far easier than moving large missiles from Iran into Syria and Lebanon. However, until the alleged attack last weekend, Israel has on the whole refrained from acting inside Lebanon.

Looking ahead: The Beirut attack, combined with other Israeli strikes in Syria and Iraq in recent days, has escalated tensions between Iran, Hezbollah and Israel. Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah has vowed to retaliate militarily, although one report said this would be a “calculated response” that would not drag Israel and Lebanon into war. The IDF remains on heightened alert, especially in northern Israel, expecting an imminent attack.