BICOM

What happened: Negotiators for the Likud and Blue and White parties met yesterday in an attempt to form a national unity government although there are major disagreements between the two parties with no signs yet of a compromise. Final election results are due to be announced today as election authorities declared that the final count resulted in Likud winning a 32nd seat at the expense of the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism (UTJ) party.

• Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Likud) and Benny Gantz (Blue and White) launched talks on Monday at the behest of President Reuven Rivlin. Their party negotiators met yesterday and discussed a variety of options including a common policy platform and details of a prime minister rotation arrangement.
• A joint statement issued by the two sides said the “the meeting was topical and carried out in good spirits.” Yet major differences remain. Likud negotiators argued that they represented the entire 55-seat right-wing/religious bloc. Blue and White, for its part, said it would not “relinquish our principles or our partners.”
• Likud did receive some positive news overnight, picking up an additional Knesset seat due to its vote-sharing agreement with a smaller right-wing party. The additional seat means Likud have 32 seats, compared to Blue and White’s 33.

Context: The ongoing unity talks have done little to resolve the overall deadlock in the coalition formation process. Neither Likud nor Blue and White have a clear path to achieve a 61-seat parliamentary majority without the other.

• Likud’s additional Knesset seat does not change the overall divide between the right-wing/ultra-Orthodox bloc (55 seats) and centre-left/Arab bloc (57), since the seat came at the expense of UTJ, a close Likud ally. Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu party (8 seats) remains the likely swing vote in any future governing coalition.
• At present Likud has shown no inclination to abandon its allies in the right-wing bloc, which runs counter to Blue and White’s promises to its predominantly secular voter base (on such issues as civil marriages, ultra-Orthodox military conscription, and Sabbath public transportation).
• Likud has shown no inclination so far to abandon Netanyahu, despite his looming indictments on corruption charges. Blue and White promised during the campaign it would not serve in government with Netanyahu if he has been indicted.

Looking ahead: President Rivlin is reportedly considering delaying the announcement of who he will ask first to form a Government, Netanyahu or Gantz. There has been much speculation as to who has the advantage – the leader asked first or the leader who is asked second after the first leader fails. Reports indicate Rivlin may only make the decision next Wednesday in order to allow the two sides to continue talks to agree a unity government. Coincidentally, next Wednesday is also the day set for Netanyahu’s pre-trial hearing where his lawyers will challenge the Attorney General’s evidence against him. The Attorney General is expected to make his final decision, whether or not to indict Netanyahu, closer to the end of the year. Netanyahu and Gantz are scheduled to meet again this evening at the president’s residence, although no one expects a major breakthrough.