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Netanyahu floats Likud leadership primary

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What happened: As the new Knesset was sworn in yesterday and coalition talks stalled, sources close to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu floated the idea of holding a snap Likud primary vote, perhaps as early as the end of October. Gideon Saar, number five on the Likud Knesset list, immediately tweeted “I’m ready,” indicating his intent to challenge Netanyahu for party leader. Later in the day, however, several senior Likud officials and other Netanyahu confidantes backed off the idea.

  • It is unlikely that Netanyahu will now move to convene the Likud Central Committee late next week, as had been planned, in order to set the primary process in motion.
  • Unnamed sources close to Netanyahu told Kan Radio that the trial balloon had been floated in order to “expose Gideon Saar’s true face and to prove that he was planning to replace him imminently.”
  • Saar was the only Likud leader that declared he would be running in the leadership contest, as other would-be challengers either supported Netanyahu or remained silent.

Context: Netanyahu has made little headway in his efforts to form a coalition government. Blue and White have maintained their position that Netanyahu is himself the impediment to any national unity government, spurring speculation they are awaiting a leadership putsch from within the Likud. By raising the possibility of a leadership vote Netanyahu was aiming to show his political opponents – both inside and outside the Likud – that his position within the party is secure.

  • A morning meeting between Netanyahu and Avigdor Liberman, head of Yisrael Beitenu, ended with no agreement.
  • Netanyahu’s lawyers were, for the second day in a row, meeting with state prosecutors to challenge the Attorney General’s evidence as part of a pre-trial hearing in the Prime Minister’s three corruption cases.
  • Blue and White number two Yair Lapid announced yesterday that he was giving up his agreement of a rotating premiership with party leader Benny Gantz. Netanyahu and the Likud had in recent days highlighted the rotation agreement as the main impediment to any unity government.

Looking ahead: Very little has actually changed despite yesterday’s political machinations. Likud and Blue and White are at an impasse, with Netanyahu expected to return the “mandate” to form a government back to President Reuven Rivlin, perhaps as early as next week. After that, Benny Gantz will get his opportunity to form a government. Barring a Likud leadership change, however, he will also find it extremely difficult to cobble together a 61 seat majority coalition. Avigdor Liberman indicated yesterday that if no progress was made by Yom Kippur (Wednesday, 9 October) he would present his own plan for a national unity government.