BICOM

What happened: An estimated 6,000 to 10,000 supporters of Benjamin Netanyahu demonstrated in central Tel Aviv last night, under the banner “Stop the Coup” — a reference to the perceived legal conspiracy to unseat the Prime Minister. Demonstrators alleged that left-wing elements, the media and judicial authorities worked in tandem to indict Netanyahu for bribery, fraud and breach of trust in three corruption cases.

• Only three Likud party Knesset members attended, including party whip MIki Zohar and Culture Minister Miri Regev. In her speech Regev said that “the rule of law is not above the law,” while Zohar urged the Prime Minister to “stay strong…a large part, if not the majority of the nation is with you.” Netanyahu had urged supporters to attend the demonstration and Likud funded the event, including providing transport. But the turnout was low given that Netanyahu and his allies had described the situation as a “national emergency”.
• Several journalists were physically and verbally assaulted during the protests, incidents that reflect the prevailing narrative espoused by Netanyahu and his supporters that the media are overwhelmingly hostile, biased and “left wing”.
• Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit yesterday publicly criticised the ongoing incitement against the legal authorities, and highlighted the fact that the State Prosecutor and his deputy were now under tight personal security.

Context: Netanyahu is fighting for his political career and against serious criminal charges after being formally indicted last week. But, a challenge to his leadership from within the Likud by Gidon Saar appears to have stalled, with no other senior Likud figures coming out publicly against Netanyahu.

• The Knesset has until 11 December to form a government, otherwise an unprecedented third election in 12 months will be triggered automatically. Both Likud and their main challenger Blue and White have continued to emphasise their willingness to form a unity government although the gaps remain wide.
• Raising political and security tensions, three rockets were fired last night at southern Israel from the Gaza Strip, leading to concerns that the fragile ceasefire reached between Israel and Gaza-based factions earlier this month may be in jeopardy. In response, the Israeli air force hit Hamas military targets, including underground bunkers and weapons manufacturing facilities.

Looking ahead: The low turnout at last night’s demonstration, and the fact most Likud leaders stayed away, will be a major concern for Netanyahu. Yet recent polls have indicated that Likud under Netanyahu would win more support in an election than any other potential Likud leader. The most likely political scenario remains a third election in March with Netanyahu retaining his position as Likud leader and staying on as Prime Minister. In the short term, the increase in rocket fire from Gaza is a major issue with no political space for Netanyahu to either close a long-term ceasefire deal with Hamas or avoid an increasingly forceful military response.