BICOM analysis ahead of Prime Minister Gordon Brown's visit to Israel

1. Overview of current political situation in Israel

2. Current issues on Israel's foreign policy agenda

3. Key features of the relationship between Britain and Israel

4. Iranian violations of IAEA and UN requirements relating to its nuclear programme

5. Recorded statements on Israel by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

A brief overview of Israel's current political situation

It is safe to say that political discussions in Israel are dominated by the uncertain political future of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and the belief across the political map that early general elections are expected in spring 2009. The following analysis examines the main political issues in Israel and the key political events in the near future.

1. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's investigation
   • Olmert has been under police investigation for a protracted period. While previous investigations did not lead to his indictment, the current investigation of alleged accusations - that Olmert received illegal donations during his term as industry and trade minister - may result in a criminal indictment, which would force Olmert to resign. This is different to past allegations against Olmert mainly because it involves flight for his families - a particularly personal link -  and because it is the 6^th time he has been investigated.
   • The key witness in the case, the American businessman Morris Talansky, is currently undergoing cross-examination by Olmert's lawyers in the preliminary stage of testimony in the case. However, sources familiar with the case have expressed confidence that this will not undermine the evidence collected so far.
   • Following the cross-examination, Attorney General Menachem Mazuz will be asked to make a final decision on the indictment. These legal consultations is likely to take several weeks, but will probably conclude before the internal primaries in Kadima take place in the third week of September.
2. Kadima's leadership race - due to take place in late September
   • According to the current assessment, the key contenders for the leadership of Kadima are Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz. Olmert's associates remain unclear as to whether or not he will take part in the race, but this scenario seems highly unlikely at this point.
   • While Livni maintains a lead in the polls and enjoys popular support among the general public, Mofaz enjoys the support of key figures within the party, which may provide him with an advantage on the actual election day.
   • Additionally, Livni may encounter more difficulties in putting together a coalition, with opposition from the ultra-orthodox Shas party and reservations from the Israeli Labour party, who fear Livni may establish her credentials and experience at their expense.
   • It is therefore expected that even a change in the leadership of Kadima and the appointment of a successor to Olmert will not prevent early elections from taking place.
3. Power balance, agenda and predictions for future elections
   • Polls conducted in the past 12 months have shown that the Likud under Benjamin Netanyahu is likely to draw the largest number of Knesset seats, and will not encounter difficulties in assembling a coalition of religious and right-wing parties.
   • The only threat the Likud party faces is the centrality that corruption issues may take in the next elections, as some of its leaders have been accused of ethical and legal improprieties. Tzipi Livni, Labour, is considered to be a "clean" political figure and may attract voters on this platform.
   • Israeli Labour under Ehud Barak is losing support according to recent polls, mostly due to its failure to present the Israeli public with an agenda that will set it apart from Kadima. Both parties are seen to share similar diplomatic agendas and socioeconomic platforms, which has raised predictions that they may run on a joint ticket in the next elections. However, polls show that a under a joint ticket, the two actually gain less Knesset seats than on separate tickets.

Conclusion

Several issues, from public corruption to the Iranian nuclear threat, are often mentioned as topping the concerns of the Israeli public. Despite these burning issues, the Israeli public currently lacks political fervour, most likely because the entire spectrum of leaders has failed to present a political agenda that can reignite the public's passion for political involvement.

Current issues on Israel's foreign policy agenda

Israel's current agenda and policy have been determined by two intertwined tracks. The first regards the ongoing security threats from some of Israel's Arab neighbours and have recently intensified with increasing concern over the Iranian nuclear threat. The second is the policy of Israeli government negotiations, seen in ongoing talks with the Palestinian Authority and the recent renewal of indirect negotiations with Syria.

Security threats

Iran

1.  
   • Iran undoubtedly represents the most urgent security threat to Israel. This assessment is shared by all key Israeli leaders.
   • In the past five years, Iran has gradually established itself as a regional power that openly aspires to solidify its hegemonic status in the Gulf and, more widely, in the Middle East. As such, Tehran has been extending its support to regional allies and positioning itself at the forefront of those who call for Israel's destruction.
   • Iran's threats go beyond vehement rhetoric and manifest themselves in Tehran's open support for terror organisations operating against Israel, most notably Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas. Both organisations have acknowledged their military and financial dependency on Iran, and Israel has faced the results of these ties in the use of Iranian-supplied weapons by Hezbollah and Hamas.
   • The ongoing Iranian defiance of international demands intensifies Israel's concerns. Israel continues to watch the advancing Iranian uranium enrichment programme and the limited success international activities have had so far. As officials in Jerusalem have clarified, Israel will not be able to accept a nuclear Iran and will consider its options if international efforts fail.
   • Please see in this pack a separate briefing on Iranian violations of IAEA and UN requirements relating to its nuclear programme

Hezbollah

1.  
   • Recent intelligence reports indicate that Hezbollah has been able to rebuild its military capabilities, which were eroded during the Second Lebanon War of 2006. According to these assessments, Hezbollah now has approximately 40,000 short, medium and long-range missiles and has been able to re-establish its infrastructure in southern Lebanon, despite Security Council Resolution 1701 that prohibited Hezbollah activity south of the Litani River.
   • Hezbollah continues to claim that the Shebaa Farms region is an integral part of Lebanon, even though the UN has declared it not part of its territory. Hezbollah's claim provides it with justification to continue armed attacks against Israel. While the Israel-Lebanon border remains quiet, these threats should not be underestimated.

Hamas

1.  
   • Israel and Hamas have been able to reach a ceasefire agreement brokered with Egyptian mediation. The ceasefire has so far dramatically reduced the number of rockets being fired from the Gaza Strip and has enabled a substantial easing of the restrictions on the transport of goods into Gaza.
   • Kidnapped IDF soldier Gilad Shalit continues to be held captive in Gaza, and negotiations are taking place in Cairo to secure his release in return for several hundred Palestinian prisoners. The main point of contention remains the list of the prisoners Hamas demands, which includes terrorists convicted of mass killings of Israelis.
   • Hamas continues to build its military capabilities in the Gaza Strip, and has not changed its rhetoric rejecting the existence of the State of Israel or agreements made between Israel and the Palestinian leadership in the past.

The diplomatic activity

Syria

• Israel and Syria recently renewed indirect diplomatic contacts through Turkish mediation. So far, only preliminary discussions and talks on the more basic issues of the negotiations process have occurred. A fourth round of talks is planned to take place in the coming days, and according to Turkish sources, Ankara has been pushing for direct talks to commence following that.
• Despite the fact that there is broad public support for direct talks between Israel and Syria, the Israeli public remains reluctant to support territorial concessions on the Golan Heights for peace with Syria. It seems that a long process of preparation and reassurance will be needed for this to be accepted.

The Palestinian Authority

• Bilateral negotiations (and often weekly meetings) between Israeli and Palestinian teams have been taking place regularly since the Annapolis Summit of November 2007.
• There is broad support for negotiations with the Palestinian leadership, and support for a two-state solution remains high among Israelis.
• Despite the broad scepticism regarding the prospects of an agreement being reached by the end of the year, the negotiations have produced some concrete improvement in the lives of Palestinians in the West Bank and have made progress on key issues of the final-status agreement. In addition, the following improvements have been realised recently:
• § Some parts of the West Bank, such as the Jenin region in the northern West Bank, have been transferred to Palestinian control and have been fully administered by the Palestinian Authority since.
• § Palestinian security forces have been operating in several Palestinian cities in growing capacity, enforcing order and dramatically reducing crime levels.

Key features of the relationship between Britain and Israel

Pre-state: 1917-1948

To this day, Israel retains many influences from the period when Britain controlled Palestine, from 1917 to 1948. The main street running through the centre of west Jerusalem bears the name of King George, English is widely used and English football teams are followed avidly!

Britain conquered Palestine in 1917 and issued the Balfour Declaration, which expressed support for the establishment of a Jewish home in Palestine. In 1921, Britain was granted a Mandate in Palestine by the League of Nations, which reaffirmed the principles of the Balfour Declaration. In 1939, on the eve of World War II and following a three-year Arab revolt in Palestine, Britain all but barred Jewish immigration to Palestine with the MacDonald White Paper. Nevertheless, 30,000 Palestinian Jews served in the British armed forces during World War II.

After the war, Britain refused to allow hundreds of thousands of Jewish refugees from the Holocaust to immigrate to Palestine, leading to direct confrontation between Jews of Palestine and the British authorities. In 1946, Jewish extremists bombed the British headquarters in the King David Hotel, killing 91, in an act condemned by the mainstream Jewish leadership. In 1947, Britain handed the question of the future of Palestine over to the UN, which voted to approve a plan to partition Palestine into Jewish and Arab states. Britain abstained from the vote.

Post 1948

Britain recognised Israel in 1949. In the Cold War period, Britain's relations with Israel were determined by its broader priorities in the Middle East, which were to maintain regional stability, reliable and uninterrupted oil supplies, and work against Soviet influence in the region. This meant that British relations with Israel had to be carefully calibrated so as to avoid damage to relations with the Arab world.

British influence and military presence in the Middle East, as in most other parts of the world, declined in the decade after World War II. In 1956, Britain and France cooperated with Israel during the Sinai-Suez Conflict. The war ended under US pressure and Britain assumed a much lower profile in regional affairs post-Suez.  As British influence in the region declined, US influence grew, and Israel became increasingly tied to the US strategically and militarily. However, Europe became established as Israel's biggest trading partner, helped by a series of free trade and cooperation agreements signed since 1975.

The relationship today

Since 1997, under the Labour government, Britain has consistently sought to maintain a balanced position in the Middle East peace process, with former Prime Minister Tony Blair working hard to support the process towards the establishment of a Palestinian state while encouraging US engagement on the issue. Britain has remained a steadfast supporter of Israel's right to protect its citizens from terrorism and other violent threats.

Trade between Britain and Israel has grown considerably in the last ten years, and economic ties between the UK and Israel contributed a total of £1.7 billion to UK GDP in 2006. Israel is the UK's 26th most important trade partner per head, and joint trade contributed £0.4 billion to UK GDP in 2006. 200 Israeli academics are employed at British universities, whose work in science and technology has helped to keep British academia in the forefront of the world.

Prime Minister Gordon Brown and Foreign Secretary David Miliband have demonstrated a similar commitment to the peace process, and have shown a keen awareness that Britain and Israel share many key strategic interests. Both countries support the cause of moderates in the Arab world and an increase in freedom and democracy in the region. Both share considerable concern at the growing threat of Islamic extremism in the region, particularly under the sponsorship and influence of Iran. Iranian-backed militants have constituted a considerable threat to UK forces in Iraq, as they have to Israel in southern Lebanon and the Palestinian territories.

Iranian violations of IAEA and UN requirements relating to its nuclear programme

Background

• In 2002 and 2003, as a result of information provided by an Iranian opposition group, the IAEA discovered that Iran had been systematically lying to the world over the extent of its nuclear programme over many years. In particular, the IAEA learned about two nuclear facilities that had been previously undeclared, and the extent of Iran's uranium enrichment programme.
• Uranium enrichment can produce fuel for civilian power plants or for nuclear weapons. Western powers had long suspected Iranian ambitions to develop nuclear weapons technology.
• In 2003, the EU-3 (Britain, France and Germany) negotiated with Iran to sign an ‘Additional Protocol' agreement with the IAEA, which involved suspending its development of uranium enrichment technology and opening itself up to more detailed inspections. This agreement was expanded by the 2004 Paris Agreement, and the EU-3 continued to negotiate with Iran over a package of economic and political incentives which they would offer in return for a permanent cessation of Iran's uranium fuel enrichment programme.
• In 2005, following the election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran pulled out of negotiations, breached the Additional Protocol and began openly pursuing uranium enrichment.
• There is no need for Iran to develop this technology for civilian purposes, since it has a contract with Russia to supply fuel for civilian nuclear power.
• In 2006, the IAEA referred the issue to the UN Security Council, which has since passed a series of binding resolutions demanding that Iran comply with IAEA demands. The Security Council has implemented sanctions due to Iran's non-compliance.
• Iran continues to reject all demands on it and claims independent uranium enrichment capability as its national right.

Latest developments

• A recent IAEA report (26 May 2008) details Iran's continued failure to satisfy IAEA concerns and queries regarding its nuclear programme. In particular, it recounts how IAEA inspectors confronted Iranian officials in April and May 2008 with documents it received from ‘several members states' (i.e. intelligence material), which reveal Iran's research into triggers for nuclear weapons and adapting the Iranian Shihab 3 missile to carry a nuclear payload. The IAEA states that:
• "This information, which was provided to the Agency by several Member States, appears to have been derived from multiple sources over different periods of time, is detailed in content, and appears to be generally consistent." (Paragraph 16).
• "the Agency is of the view that Iran may have additional information, in particular on high explosives testing and missile related activities, which could shed more light on the nature of these alleged studies and which Iran should share with the agency." (Paragraph 23).
• "Substantive explanations are required from Iran to support its statements on the alleged studies and on other information with a possible military dimension." (Paragraph 28)
• Iran denies that the documents supplied to the IAEA imply a nuclear weapons programme, or claim that they are forged.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: Recorded statements on Israel

(footnotes below)

"World powers have created a black and dirty microbe named the Zionist regime and have unleashed it like a savage animal on the nations of the region." [1] (Feb. 20, 2008)

"I warn you to abandon the filthy Zionist entity that has reached the end of the line... accept that the life of Zionists will sooner or later come to an end." [2] (Jan. 30, 2008)

"It is impossible that the Zionist regime will survive. We are disappointed that some individuals fell victim to the sinister Zionist regime. They are mistaken if they thought that this summit will bring any achievements for them." [3] (Nov. 28, 2007)

"I wish the name of Saudi Arabia was not among those attending the Annapolis conference...Arab countries should be watchful in the face of the plots and deception of the Zionist enemy." [4] (Nov. 26, 2007)

"Canada and Alaska have vast lands, why don't you relocate them [Israeli Jews] over there and keep helping them over there with (aid of) 30 to 40 billion dollars per year for building a new existence over there." [5] (Oct. 5, 2007)

"[The] creation of the Zionist regime, [and the] continuation of its existence... are an insult to human dignity." [7] (Oct. 5, 2007)

"In Iran, we don't have homosexuals like in your country. We don't have that in our country. In Iran, we do not have this phenomenon. I don't know who's told you that we have it." [8] (Sept. 24, 2007)

"If you want to take the same path and issue [the] previous kinds of resolutions which had no effect on us again, the Iranian nation does not consider your resolutions to be worth a nickel coin." [9] (June 13, 2007)

"It is too late to stop the progress of Iran. Iran has passed the point where they wanted Iran to stop." [10] (June 5, 2007)

"The Iranian people are united behind the supreme leader (Ayatollah Ali Khamenei) and will not step back one inch in their nuclear program. Iran has become a nuclear country." [11] (June 3, 2007)

"With God's help, the countdown button for the destruction of the Zionist regime has been pushed by the hands of the children of Lebanon and Palestine. By God's will, we will witness the destruction of this regime in the near future." [12] (June 3, 2007)

"If Iran's right to nuclear technology is confirmed, all nations of the world will gather under Iran's political banner. Enemies of Islamic Iran know this, and for this reason they have mobilized." [13] (May 24, 2007)

"The nation seeks peace and security all over the world and wants to have relations with all nations and states except for the Zionist regime." [15] (April 18, 2007)

"Zionists are the true incarnation of Satan." [16] (Feb. 28, 2007)

"Thanks to the grace of God and (the Iranian people's) resistance, we are on the final stage of the path to the nuclear peak. Not more than one step is left to be taken. By the end of the year, we will organize a celebration across the country to mark the stabilization of our nuclear rights." [18] (Dec. 5, 2006)

"Israel is destined for destruction and will soon disappear." [20] (Nov. 13, 2006)

"The real cure for the conflict is elimination of the Zionist regime." [23] (Aug. 3, 2006)

"Today the Palestinian nation's will is the greatest power in the Middle East and by voting in favour of Hamas the Palestinians emphasized their ideal of resistance till the liberation of their country and the enemies cannot confront that will." [26] (Feb. 20, 2006)

"Some Western governments, in particular the U.S., approve of the sacrilege on the Prophet Mohammad (PBUH), while denial of the `Myth of Holocaust', based on which the Zionists have been exerting pressure upon other countries for the past 60 years and kill the innocent Palestinians, is considered as a crime." [28] (Feb. 11, 2006)

"They have created a myth in the name of the Holocaust and consider it above God, religion and the prophets." [30] (Dec. 14, 2005)

"Some Europeans countries insist on saying that Hitler killed millions of innocent Jews in furnaces...Although we don't accept this claim...If the Europeans are honest they should give some of their provinces in Europe-like in Germany, Austria or other countries-to the Zionists and the Zionists can establish their state in Europe." [31] (Dec. 8, 2005)

[1] "Ahmadinejad in new attack on 'savage animal' Israel," AFP, Feb. 20, 2008, http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5g_nrxYSrTbp_LIZcVU4VGCBpQ0hQ

[2] Fathi, Nazila, "Iran to produce nuclear energy by 2009, Ahmadinejad says," International Herald Tribune, Jan. 31, 2008, http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/01/31/mideast/nukes.php;

http://news.monstersandcritics.com/middleeast/news/article_1389100

.php/Ahmadinejad_tells_West_Acknowledge_Israels_&quotimminent_collapse%22

[3] "Interview With President Bush; Republican Presidential Candidates Prepare For CNN/YouTube Debate," CNN, Nov. 28, 2007, http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0711/28/sitroom.03.html

[4] "Ahmadinejad disappointed from Saudi participation in Annapolis conference," Al Bawaba, Nov. 26, 2007, http://www.albawaba.com/en/countries/Saudi%20Arabia/219317

[5] "Anti-Israeli Demonstrations Start in Iran," Fars News Agency, Oct. 5, 2007, http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8607130398

[7] "Iranian officials support Palestine on Quds Day," IRNA, Oct. 5, 2007, http://www2.irna.com/en/news/view/line-24/0710054137164336.htm

[8] "President Ahmadinejad Delivers Remarks at Columbia University," CQ Transcripts Wire, Sept. 24, 2007, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/09/24/AR2007092401042.html  

[9] Adler, Michael, "Iran defiant ahead of UN nuclear talks," Agence France-Presse, June 13, 2007

[10] Weissenstein, Michael, "Iran: 'too late' to stop Nuclear Program," Associated Press via The Guardian, June 5, 2007, http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,,-6684809,00.html

[11] Farmani, Hiedeh, "Iran 'invincible in nuclear standoff: Ahmadinejad," Agence France-Presse, June 3, 2007

[12] "Iran president sees 'countdown' to Israel's end." Reuters, June 3, 2007, http://www.reuters.com/articlePrint?articleId=USBLA32653020070603

[13] Karimi, Nasser, "Iran Vows to press Ahead on Nuke Program," Associated Press via The Guardian, May 24, 2007, http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,,-6657514,00.html

[14] "Iran won't budge an inch on nuclear: Ahmadinejad," Agence France-Presse, May 2, 2007

[15] Al-Bawaba Reporters, "Ahmadinejad: Iran Army to 'cut hands of aggressors,'" Al-Bawaba, April 18, 2007, http://www.albawaba.com/en/news/212019; "Ahmadinejad says Iran army is of defensive nature," Al-Manar TV, April 18, 2007, http://www.almanar.com.lb/NewsSite/NewsDetails.aspx?id=15523&language=en

[16] "Zionists 'incarnation of Satan,'" Ahmadinejad," Agence France-Presse, March 1, 2007

[18] "Iran warns EU against sanctions," Fars News, Dec. 6, 2006, http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8509150479

[19] "Iran: Nuclear program will be operating by February," CNN, Nov. 15, 2006, http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/11/14/iran.nuclear/index.html

[20] "Iranian leader predicts Israel's end," United Press International, Nov. 13, 2006

[21] "Iranian President Ahmadinejad: The West Should Pick Up the Zionist Regime 'By the Arms and Legs' and Remove It from the Region; U.N. Resolutions Are Illegitimate; America & England are Enemies of the Iranian Nation," The Middle East Media Research Institute, Special Dispatch, Series No. 1337, Oct. 27, 2006,  http://memri.org/bin/articles.cgi?Page=countries&Area=iran&ID=SP133706

[22] Ibid.

[23] Berger, Sebastien; Bishop, Patrick, "'Eliminate' Israel to solve the crisis, says Iranian president," The Daily Telegraph, Aug. 4, 2006, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/08/04/wmid204.xml

[24] "Iran's Ahmadinejad attacks Israel at Iraq conference," Agence France-Presse, July 8, 2006

[25] Ibid.

[26] "Ahmadinejad: Palestinian nation's will greatest power to solve Mideast crisis," IRNA, Feb. 21, 2006, accessed Feb. 22, 2006

[27] Ibid.

[28] "President: Real holocaust to be sought in Palestine, Iraq," IRNA, Feb. 11, 2006

[29] "Iran's Ahmadinejad: Sharon dead and 'others to follow suit," Iran Focus, Jan. 5, 2006, http://www.iranfocus.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=5166

[30] Vick, Karl. "Iran's President calls Holocaust 'Myth' in latest Assault on Jews," The Washington Post, Dec. 15, 2005, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/12/14/AR2005121402403.html

[31] "Iran's Leader Voices Doubt On Holocaust," Reuters via The Washington Post, Dec. 9, 2005, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/12/08/AR2005120801788.html?nav=rss_world; "Ahmadinejad: Courting controversy," Aljazeera, Dec. 14, 2005, http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/39AF3EA0-C8E9-456A-99D3-438045D4431F.htm

[32] MacAskill, Ewen; McGreal, Chris, "Israel should be wiped off the map, says Iran's president" The Guardian, Oct. 27, 2005, http://www.guardian.co.uk/iran/story/0,12858,1601413,00.html

[33] Penketh, Anne, "Iran's leader says Jewish state 'should be wiped from map," The Independent, Oct. 27, 2005, http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/article322539.ece

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