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Analysis

BICOM Briefing: Gaza situation update 11 January 2009

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  • Egypt’s role is pivotal to achieving a successful, sustainable outcome to this situation. To prevent smuggling of missiles, individuals with technical know-how, and other illicit supplies into Gaza after this operation has ended, Egypt will need to ensure that a much stronger presence is permanently maintained along the border between Egypt and Gaza.
  • Although the military operation continues, the diplomatic front now appears to be taking centre stage, demonstrating the importance which most players, Israel of course included, give to the ongoing talks with Egypt.
  • Amos Gilad, director of the Political-Security Bureau in the Israeli Defence Ministry, will head back to Cairo on Monday to continue talks on the Franco-Egyptian initiative for a ceasefire in Gaza.

Key statements

Dominic Lawson in the Sunday Times (11/1): “This is not exactly the classical doctrine of deterrence: it’s supposed to stop people attacking you in the first place. Yet the Israeli attack on Gaza is part of the same policy of delayed deterrence. Paradoxical though this might seem, it is also essential if the process towards an independent Palestinian state is to have a future.”

Peter Hitchens in the Mail on Sunday (11/1): “After warning that anyone who remained in Hama would be considered a rebel, the Syrian Army bombed and shelled the city for three weeks. Death and torture squads were then unleashed. Estimates of the numbers killed range from 7,000 to 40,000. By comparison with this, Israel’s attack on Gaza looks positively effeminate. But fashionable showbiz folk have never heard of Hama. Is it all right for Arabs to kill Arabs – and only bad when Israel does it?”

Ron Prosor, Israeli Ambassador to UK, at rally in Trafalgar Square (11/1): “Today we have come together so that our brothers and sisters, our sons and daughters in Israel, know that we are with them, and so that our friends and neighbours in Great Britain know where we stand. The basic simple goal of the people of Israel is to be allowed to live in peace, without violence, without fear, and without terror. Instead of walking down a path of peace, Hamas has led its people down a dead end road of war.”

Amos Gilad on future prevention of smuggling from Egypt to Gaza (11/1): “International forces in Egypt would be perceived as undermining their sovereignty and beyond that, they don’t work, look at the situation in Lebanon. These forces lack intelligence and the ability to act against arms smugglers, while Egypt has excellent security forces and military that can prevent smuggling. No one can compete with their forces.”

Hamas Leader Khaled Meshaal rejects ceasefire initiatives (10/1): “You have finished off the last chance and breath for settlement and negotiations. We are living the hardest moments of the resistance now, we want another intifada in Palestine and on the Arab street.”

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert comments on situation at start of cabinet meeting (11/1): “For three weeks now, the State of Israel has been making an impressive military effort in the Gaza Strip in order to change the security situation in the south of the country. For many years we’ve demonstrated restraint. We reined [in] our reactions. We bit our lips and took barrage after barrage. No country in the world – not even those who preach morality to us – would have shown similar patience and self-control. At the end of the day, the sense of responsibility and the obligation to defend our citizens, after endless warnings, led us to the unavoidable decision to defend our children and our residents whose lives had become intolerable.”

Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni on the objectives of Operation Cast Lead (10/1): “At the end of the day, this is not a conflict between two states but a fight against terror…. We need to fight in Gaza because they [Hamas] have targeted Israel for eight years. We are fighting in order to weaken them and to affect their ability to target Israel in the future.”

Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni on the objectives of Operation Cast Lead (10/1): “In six months, Hamas has changed the range of the missiles from 20 kilometres to 50 kilometres. This now threatens one million Israelis. We used to say it was just the southern part of Israel but now parts in the center of Israel are under threat. We needed to give an answer to their rearmament. We need to know that at the end of this military operation, we will not face the rearmament of Hamas.”

Hamas Official Mousa Abu Marzouk on the fate of kidnapped IDF soldier Gilad Shalit (11/1): “Shalit may have been wounded, and he may not have been. The subject no longer interests us.”

Situation on the ground

As Hamas fired a barrage of rockets that hit the city of Ashkelon and caused the injury of 14 people on Saturday, the IDF continued its operation against Hamas infrastructure in the Gaza Strip.  The army is working to tighten its control on the northern section of the strip, which is used as the main region to launch rockets into Israel. A senior Israeli military commander involved in Operation Cast Lead said on Saturday that Hamas militants are suffering from exhaustion and are deserting battle. The official estimated that more than 300 Hamas operatives have been killed since Israel launched its ground operation one week ago. This is the highest estimate given so far.

Preliminary reports indicate that the Israeli Air Force has encountered anti-aircraft fire for the first time since Operation Cast Lead began. If confirmed this is likely to constitute a serious escalation.

Amir Mansi, the commander of Hamas’s rocket-launching programme in the Gaza City area, was killed by the IDF on Saturday, while firing mortars at Israeli forces. Mansi was considered an expert with regard to long-range Grad-Katyusha rockets. Mansi had close ties to Hezbollah, and was known to receive information from the group on a regular basis.

Two rockets fired from Gaza struck Beer Sheva this morning, one of which directly hit a car. Shortly afterwards, militants in Gaza fired two Grad-Katyusha rockets at the city of Netivot. The rockets struck as some students were instructed to return to classrooms, nearly two weeks after studies were suspended due to the ongoing rocket attacks from Gaza. In Ashkelon and the surrounding area, however, students will not be attending classes while rockets continue to target the city.

On Saturday, at least 21 Palestinian rockets hit Israeli territory, wounding 14 people. Two people in Ashkelon were wounded when rockets slammed into their apartment blocs. Notably, it appears that the number of rockets fired from Gaza has been somewhat lower than at the start of Israel since Operation Cast Lead.

The IDF is currently maintaining its posts at the northern regions of the Gaza Strip and at the outskirts of Gaza City. Forces have not moved into the densely populated neighbourhoods yet and await the outcome of diplomatic talks taking place in Egypt. In the coming days, the political leadership in Israel will have to determine whether Israel will expand the operation deeper into Hamas strongholds in Gaza City, Rafah and Khan Yunis.

Diplomatic developments

According to Palestinian reports, Egypt has demanded that Hamas accept an immediate ceasefire within 48 hours; if Hamas does not do this, Cairo says it will be unable to prevent the continuation of Operation Cast Lead. Amos Gilad, director of the Political-Security Staff in the Israeli Defence Ministry, will head back to Cairo on Monday to continue talks on the Franco-Egyptian initiative for a ceasefire in Gaza. According to sources in Jerusalem, Gilad has been mandated to discuss only matters concerning the mechanism that will prevent future smuggling of arms into Gaza. Another agreement with Hamas, which would give the organisation diplomatic legitimacy, is not part of the talks.

Tally of missiles, rockets and mortar shells fired from Gaza

  • Since 2001, total number of identified rocket and mortar shell hits: 8,743
  • Since Israel’s unilateral disengagement from Gaza in August 2005:6,051
  • Since 4 November 2008: 949
  • Since the ceasefire ended on 19 December 2008: 884
  • Since Operation Cast Lead began on 27 December 2008: 729

For a daily tally of rockets and mortars fired into Israel, see BICOM Statistics: Total number of identified rocket and mortar shell hits since 2001; daily tally for 2008 and 2009. Please note the new web link.

 
Humanitarian aid to Gaza

Israel is conducting the latest operation while making sure that food, basic supplies and medical needs are constantly transferred into the Gaza Strip. Israel maintains ongoing contact with humanitarian agencies and enables the constant flow of goods and supplies into the strip.

Since the beginning of operation in Gaza, 652 truckloads of humanitarian aid (14,599 tons) have been transferred at the request of international organisations, the Palestinian Authority and various governments. Israel does not wish to see the humanitarian situation in the strip deteriorate. Preparations are underway to facilitate further shipments expected to arrive in the coming days.

11 January 2009

Around 100 trucks of aid are expected to enter Gaza today.

There are efforts to repair the electricity system in Gaza. Of the ten Israeli lines (which supplies around 70% of electricity), six are operative and four are being repaired. The Palestinian power station (20%) is running intermittently. Both Egyptian lines (10%) are functional.

There is no transfer of fuel into Gaza from Nahal Oz because the tanks on the Gaza side are full and Hamas is refusing to allow the tankers to distribute the fuel. This is a tactic we have seen in the past.

There is a good deal of coordination on humanitarian affairs between Israel and international organisations. COGAT representatives met with the ICRC yesterday to coordinate the movement of ambulances in Gaza. In recent days, Amos Gilad – in his position at COGAT – has met with UNWRA director Karen AbuZayd, UNSCO head Robert Serry and the ICRC’s representative.  

10 January 2009

Official updates have not yet been published. When they are we will update this space.

9 January 2009
About 70 trucks carrying food products and electrical equipment entered via the Kerem Shalom crossing. While most of the population in the Gaza Strip has electricity, work continues to restore additional electrical lines.

8 January 2009
Israel transferred 89 humanitarian aid trucks to Gaza via the Kerem Shalom Crossing, totalling 2,227 tons of food products, medical supplies and medication. 315,000 litres of fuel for the Gaza power station, alongside 143 tons of natural gas for domestic uses were transferred through the Nahal Oz terminal. 223 foreign nationals were permitted entry into Israel to leave Gaza, following requests from their respective governments.

7 January 2009
Throughout the day, the crossings facilitated the movement of 76 trucks loaded with 2,068 tons of humanitarian goods, comprised of donations from Jordan and Egypt and aid on behalf of UNRWA, the World Food Programme, the World Health Organisation and the International Committee of the Red Cross. Also, 482,000 litres of heavy duty diesel for the power plant, 92,000 litres of diesel for UN humanitarian operations and 43 tons of gas for domestic use were transferred to the Gaza Strip. 

Ongoing activities are taking place to repair additional electrical lines. Nevertheless, most of the population in the Gaza Strip has electricity.

6 January 2009

57 trucks loaded with 1,312 tons of humanitarian aid entered the Gaza Strip via the Kerem Shalom crossing. The trucks contained medical supplies, flour, powdered milk, potatoes, barley and more, shipped to Gaza at the request of international organisations including UNRWA, the World Food Programme and the World Health Organisation, as well as international donations on behalf of the governments of Jordan, Egypt and Greece. Israel’s humanitarian efforts, in conjunction with international organisations operating in the Gaza Strip, also include medical treatment in Israeli hospitals and infrastructure repairs in the Gaza Strip.

5 January 2009

49 trucks carrying 1,119 tons of food and medicines were transferred to Gaza via the Kerem Shalom crossing, including four with medical equipment and medicines. The aid was donated by international organisations – UNRWA, WFP and the ICRC – and by several countries, including Egypt and Jordan. In addition, 215,000 litres of diesel fuel for the power plant, 93,000 litres of diesel for the use of various UN organisations and 50 tons of cooking gas for domestic uses were transferred via the Nahal Oz terminal.

The evacuation of dual nationals is continuing.

2 January 2009
Israel transferred 64 trucks carrying 1,530 tons of humanitarian aid (including basic foodstuffs, medicines and medical supplies, tents and generators) via the Kerem Shalom crossing.

1 January 2009
60 trucks, with approximately 1,360 tons of humanitarian aid, medical supplies and medication were conveyed through Kerem Shalom cargo terminal.

31 December 2008
93 truckloads carrying some 2,500 tons of humanitarian aid, medical supplies and medications were transferred through the Kerem Shalom crossing. The World Food Programme notified the Israeli authorities that their food warehouses in the Gaza Strip are full, with a two-week supply, and they do not require further shipments.

The Nahal Oz fuel crossing remained closed due to continuing fire in the area.

Twelve Palestinians, including two children, were transferred to Israeli hospitals.

30 December 2008
93 truckloads carrying 2,366 tons of humanitarian supplies as well as five ambulances donated by Turkey were transferred to the Gaza Strip. A Red Cross plane arrived with medical supplies for the hospital operating room. The aid included food and medicine provided by the World Food Programme, UNRWA, UNICEF, the ICRC, the World Health Organisation, Doctors without Borders, and Care International, as well as donations from Egypt, Jordan, Qatar and Turkey.

29 December 2008
63 trucks with 1,545 tons of humanitarian goods (food, medicines and medical supplies) were delivered via the Kerem Shalom crossing. Most of the aid was provided by the International Red Cross, UNRWA, Doctors without Borders, and Care International. Five ambulances from the Palestinian Red Crescent Society (PRCS) in Ramallah passed through, at the request of the International Red Cross (ICRC). 1,000 units of blood donated by the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan were also delivered.

Erez crossing: Four people (patients and their escorts), and ten international staff, including a pregnant employee of the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation and her Palestinian husband, left the Gaza Strip and crossed into Israel.

28 December 2008
At the request of international organisations (the International Red Cross, UNRWA, WFP) and of the Palestinian National Authority in Ramallah, 23 truckloads of humanitarian goods such as flour, medicines and medical supplies were transferred via Kerem Shalom crossing.

However, the transfer of additional aid through the crossings is being delayed by the high risk of terrorist attacks on the crossings themselves. There is a long history of such attacks, including:

  • 22 May 2008: a Palestinian bomber blew up an explosives-laden truck on the Palestinian side of the Erez crossing, causing substantial damage.
  • 20 April 2008: Hamas gunmen wounded 13 Israeli soldiers in an assault with mortar shells, explosives-laden vehicles and gunfire against the Kerem Shalom crossing.
  • 9 April 2008: Two Israeli civilian fuel truck drivers working at the Nahal Oz fuel depot – which supplies fuel to Gaza – were killed in an attack by Gaza militants.

Further Information

  • To visit our new Operation Cast Lead section on our website, click here. It contains daily situation updates, analyses, useful facts and figures, and videos. You can also find the section by going to our homepage and clicking on the Operation Cast Lead button on the right-hand side.
  • For a full news review for 9 January, click here.