BICOM Focus: US Engagement and diplomacy: A nearing "diplomatic surge"?

The association of certain countries in the region to an "axis of evil" has become one of the trademarks of George W. Bush's presidency.[1] At the outset, this categorisation strictly limited diplomatic engagement between the US and the leaderships of these countries, and the US used its international leverage to isolate these regimes in an attempt to pressurise them into cutting their ties with terror activity. However, over time, the Bush administration began to diplomatically engage with North Korea over the freezing of its nuclear programme[2] and recently, meetings between Syrian and US officials marked the likely end to the isolation doctrine promoted by the US since 2005.[3] The breakout of the financial crisis around the world has highlighted this change, with President Bush engaging in intense high-level talks with world leaders in an attempt to promote confidence in the global economy.

The economic turmoil that has swept markets around the world will present one of the most substantial constraints on the shape of American engagement on the international stage. First, the interconnected nature of the global markets means that overcoming the current obstacles will demand ever growing international coordination. Second, controlling the changes in energy and commodity prices that have contributed to the slowdown in consumption will require more collaboration between political and economic leaderships. International forums like the upcoming G20 summit on 15 November[4] will become a dominant feature of the next president's agenda, whether Republican or Democrat.

There is little disagreement between the rival presidential candidates about cooperation with old allies like EU countries, Japan, Australia and South Korea. However, Democrat Barack Obama repeatedly declares that he is "willing to meet with the leaders of all nations, friend and foe."[5] Obama did not back down from this stance even when criticised for being naïve, and stressed that the US needs to "use all elements of American power - including tough, principled, and direct diplomacy - to pressure countries like Iran and Syria."[6]

Obama's diplomatic philosophy, that one "approach the world, and you approach it through engagement: You shore up alliances, and you engage with enemies,"[7] was explicated by his foreign policy advisor, Daniel Kurtzer, a career diplomat who developed Middle East policy under President Bush and his father. In addition to Kurtzer, Obama has been advised by other senior experts, including Brookings Institute Senior Fellow Susan Rice; Dennis Ross, former president Bill Clinton's lead Middle East negotiator; James Steinberg, a deputy national-security advisor under Clinton and former State Department Policy Planning Staff director Gregory Craig. The prominence of high-level figures from the Clinton administration provides some indication that direct involvement in international affairs - akin to President Clinton's engagement in the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations and in resolving the conflict in Northern Ireland - will be a key feature of Obama's presidency.

On the issue of diplomatic engagement, John McCain presents a middle way between the Bush policies and Obama's reforms. Outlining the future missions of the US in the world, the Arizona senator stated that "When we believe international action - whether military, economic or diplomatic - is necessary, we must work to persuade our friends and allies that we are right. And we must also be willing to be persuaded by them. To be a good leader, America must be a good ally."[8] McCain stated that he intends to form a "league of democracies" that will work together to deal with key international challenges, like Russia's growing power and the Iranian nuclear threat.[9]

One of the sharpest differences between McCain and Obama regards direct diplomacy with leaders of countries that are in conflict with US interests. The Republican candidate strongly disagrees with Obama's position, and argues that direct talks would lend international prestige to US foes. One of the senator's main advisors, Peter Rodman, who served as a senior foreign policy official in five Republican administrations, told a House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee in April 2008 that "conditions do not exist for an improvement of relations with Syria so long as Syrian policies remain hostile to important interests of ours in the Middle East."[10]

McCain's advisors include a wide range of veteran party strategists and former top policymakers. The McCain campaign's foreign policy coordinator is Randy Scheunemann, a former top legislative aide for Republicans on Capitol Hill. Scheunemann, along with William Kristol and Robert Kagan, are leading neoconservative figures and hold significant sway over the policies presented during this campaign.

Although there have been predictions that the volatile economic environment will lead to American indifference to international affairs, it is now becoming clear that the opposite is the case. The current administration has already addressed the issue in a way that is likely to be relevant to whomever becomes president on 20 January 2009: "During times of economic crisis, some may be tempted to turn inward - focusing on our problems here at home, while ignoring our interests around the world," Bush said at a White House summit on international development in Washington. "This would be a serious mistake. America is committed, and America must stay committed, to international development for reasons that remain true regardless of the ebb and flow of the markets."[11]

[1] President Bush first used the term in his 2002 State of the Union Address, listing Iran, Iraq and North Korea as members of this group. In a speech titled "Beyond the Axis of Evil" later that year, John Bolton, who would become US ambassador to the UN, used the phrase "rogue states" to refer to Libya, Syria and Cuba.

[2] Jeremy Page and Richard Lloyd Parry. "North Korea removed from US ‘axis of evil.'" Times, 27 June 2008.

[3] "US-Syria talks may be a step toward thaw," CNN, 1 October 2008.

[4] James Gerstenzang. "President Bush schedules international economic summit, with...Barack Obama? John McCain?." Los Angeles Times, 22 October 2008.

[5] "Foreign Policy" Barack Obama official website

[6] Hilary Leila-Krieger. "Obama to ‘Post': I'll back Syria Talks." Jerusalem Post, 25 May 2008.

[7] Jay Solomon. "Obama's Mid-East Experts Emphasize Talks." The Wall Street Journal, 16 June 2008.

[8] John McCain. "An Enduring Peace Built on Freedom." Foreign Affairs, November/December 2007.

[9] John McCain. "America must be a good role model." Financial Times, 18 March 2008.

[10] Peter W. Rodman. "U.S. Policy and Syria: Who's Converting whom?" The Brookings Institute, 24 April 2008.

[11] "Dan Eggan and Anthony Faiola. Fearing a Drought of Aid." Washington Post, 22 October 2008.

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