BICOM

In recent days there have been increasing reports that Israeli decision-makers have been reassessing Israel’s options against Iran’s nuclear programme. This, according to reports in several news sources, also included the option of a military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities. The news became public last Friday when the Israeli daily Yediot Ahronot ran a front-page column suggesting that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Ehud Barak were in the midst of a campaign to convince cabinet ministers of the necessity of striking Iran’s nuclear sites. Haaretz this morning, speaking to a senior official, elaborated on the report by indicating that there is a “small advantage” in the cabinet for the opponents of such an attack. The Haaretz report also suggested that recently Netanyahu and Barak had persuaded Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, who previously objected to attacking Iran, to support such a move.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is expected to soon publish a document that reportedly points out the military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear activities. On the basis of the report, due to be released on 8 November, Western countries have been pushing for expanded United Nations sanctions on Iran, a major oil producer. In contrast, last week Russia and China signalled their concern over the timing of the IAEA document, and its possible effect on a diplomatic solution. Both Moscow and Beijing, therefore, appear currently unwilling to back any move at a mid-November meeting of the IAEA’s 35-nation governing board to refer Iran, once again, to the UN Security Council based on the agency’s report.

The wording of the IAEA report on 8 November will likely have significant impact on Israel’s decisions its assessment of the need for a military strike against Iran.