BICOM

Public opinion polls conducted in Israel in recent days suggest that Israel’s political future remains unpredictable after the split of the Israel Labour party earlier this week. The announcement by Defence Minister Ehud Barak on Monday that he and four members of the Labour party will be forming a new faction, stirred speculation about the future of the party. Polls published today by Haaretz and Maariv indicate, however, that under new leadership the party could preserve most of its voters. Although Labour loses some support, it still stands to win 9-10 seats if elections were held today, compared with 13 in the current Knesset. Officials in the Labour party were hopeful that the split and the subsequent resignation of its ministers from the coalition would help revive Labour as a leading social-democratic party that will offer a centre-left alternative to Kadima and Likud.

The broader political picture, however, still indicates an overall advantage to the centre-right bloc. The poll in Haaretz shows Likud with a slight advantage over Kadima, 32 and 30 seats respectively. Maariv, meanwhile, gives Kadima the advantage with 30 seats compared to 26 for Likud. However, the centre-left bloc headed by Kadima will only gain 51 seats and will struggle to form a coalition. In comparison, the right-wing and religious bloc gains 69 seats and still holds the advantage in forming a majority coalition. Avigdor Lieberman’s right-wing Yisrael Beiteinu maintains its position as the third-largest party with 16 seats.

The polls also sought to measure public’s sentiments toward its leadership. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is still regarded as most suitable to lead the country with 48% compared with only 31% who support Kadima chair Tzipi Livni. A striking figure regards the public’s attitude toward Defence Minister Ehud Barak, who now heads the newly formed Atzmaut faction: 66% of those polled would like to see him outside the political arena in the next elections.

Further reading – BICOM Briefing: Israeli Labour Party split